Pence traded to the Giants

PBR - According to Sports Illustrated, the Phillies have traded Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants. In exchange, the Phillies will receive outfielder Nate Schierholtz and minor leaguers Tommy Joseph and Seth Rosin.

Joseph is ranked by Baseball America as the Giants' No. 2 prospect and is hitting .260 with 8 home runs and 38 RBI in 80 games at Double-A Richmond.         

           

Schierholtz hit 5 home runs and 17 RBI in 77 games this season for the Giants.

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Report: Victorino headed to the Dodgers

PBR - According to several published reports, the Dodgers and Phillies appear close to finalizing a deal that will send Shane Victorino to Los Angles in exchange for 25-year-old reliever Josh Lindbloom and another player.

Victorino has been rumored to be dealt for a while and with today's deadline it appears he has played his last game as a Phillie.

Lindbloom provides an arm to a struggling Phillies bullpen. Through 47 2/3 innings this season the righty has a 3.02 ERA. His downfall, however, has been the homerun - surrendering nine so far this season.

A rule 5 pick in December of 2004, Victorino will become a free agent at the conclusion of the season. Lindbloom, meanwhile, won't become a free agent until 2018.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Braves | July 27 - 29

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Phils cap sweep of Brewers with another thrilling victory

PBR - Jimmy Rollins hit a run-scoring single off Francisco Rodriguez with two outs in the 10th inning and the Phillies rallied in their last at-bat for the fourth straight day, beating the Brewers, 7-6, in Philadelphia to complete their first three-game sweep of the season on Wednesday.

The win increased the Phillies' winning streak to four games.

“It shows we haven’t given up,” said Chase Utley, who had three hits and three runs batted in. “We have some ground to cover, but we have the type of guys who are determined to win.”

They celebrated with their eighth win in 12 games since the All-Star break and moved closer to getting out of last place. The Phillies remained 9 1/2 games behind in the wild-card standings.

"What we've done the last couple days is what we're capable of being," said center fielder Shane Victorino, who seems to be mentioned in a different trade rumor every day. "It's been fun."

Michael Schwimer (2-1) allowed an unearned run in the 10th, but earned the win.

John Mayberry Jr. walked with one out in the 10th against Rodriguez (2-6). Eric Kratz followed with a double. Pinch-hitter Carlos Ruiz hit a sacrifice fly to tie it.

Rollins then ripped an RBI single to right-center to end it.

"We were playing kind of rough at the end and stayed with it," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We did enough to get by."

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Phillies and Cole Hamels agree to six-year deal

PBR - The wondering is finally over.

After weeks of negotiating the Phillies and Cole Hamels have agreed to a six-year, $144 million contract extension that will keep the 28-year-old left-hander in Philadelphia through at least the 2018 season.

The deal also includes a vesting option for a seventh year that could push the total value of the contract past $160 million.

The deal was confirmed by the Review early this morning. According to a source close to the negotiations, there will be a press conference at noon today at Citizens Bank Park formally announcing the extension. According to the source, the Phillies approached Hamels with this offer on Saturday.

The contract is the most lucrative in franchise history and the second largest by any pitcher in baseball, behind only CC Sabathia of the New York Yankees, who signed a seven-year, $161 million deal before the 2009 season.

Hamels said all along that he wanted to remain in Philadelphia and wanted to emulate his childhood idol Tony Gwynn by staying with one franchise for his entire career. He also admitted he was interested in testing the waters in free agency to see his value on the open market. In the end, his comfort in Philadelphia won out.

Hamels' deal is worth an average annual salary of $24 million, meaning the Phillies have $68 million invested in three starting pitchers next season - Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

As currently constructed, the Phillies are committed to $133 million in 2013 payroll for only nine players. This figure does not account for Carlos Ruiz (option) and Hunter Pence (arbitration).

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Late sparks continue as Phils trump Brewers

PBR - It feels like 2008 all over again.

Trailing by five entering the eighth inning, the Phillies pieced together another late game surge to overtake the Brewers on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park, 7-6. 

"We still have life," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We have enough fight in us to come back."

Ty Wigginton opened the eighth with a single to left and later scored on a two-run homer by Erik Kratz. Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard each recorded a two-out walk and all eventually scored on a bases clearing double from Carlos Ruiz. Hunter Pence followed with a bloop single to right allowing Ruiz to score the game-winning run.

The victory marked the second night in a row the Phillies overcame a late-game deficit and pushed the club's winning streak to three.

"We have the talent to make a run and now we're healthy so things can happen," Manuel said.

Cliff Lee was a victim of the long ball, surrendering four over seven innings, including a pair in the eighth. He left the contest after allowing six runs on 12 hits. 

Jonathan Papelbon hurled a scoreless ninth to notch his 22nd save of the season.

Zack Greinke pitched well for Milwaukee, allowing just one run on three hits over seven innings, but the Brewers' bullpen again faltered, surrendering six runs in the eighth.

The Phillies are 7-4 since the All-Star break and sit 9 1/2 games behind the pace for a Wildcard spot.

The two clubs conclude their three-game set on Wednesday afternoon with Vance Worley scheduled to oppose Marco Estrado.  

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Report: Phillies shopping Hunter Pence

PBR - Hunter Pence has dealt with trade rumors before, enduring several last season before the Astros sent him to Philadelphia. Now, his name is surfacing again as a potential trade candidate as baseball's trade deadline sits a week from today.

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com speculated this morning that the Phillies have indicated to other clubs that Pence is available. He's earning $10.4 million this season and will make somewhere between $13 and $15 million next season in his final year of arbitration.

Pence, 29, is batting .268 this year with 17 home runs, 57 RBIs and a .789 OPS through 96 games.

“I just heard [the report]. Right now. I love Philly, I love being here, I mean look at these fans. The passion is unbelievable. There’s no better place to play baseball, no better place to win, really no worse place to lose, but that’s what you’ve got to love if you’re a competitor, you love passion from your fans,” Pence told 94WIP’s Michael Barkann and Ike Reese.

“You know, we expect a lot of ourselves and I absolutely love it here, so I hope [a trade] doesn’t come through.”

The Phillies paid a hefty price to acquire Pence last season, sending prospects Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart and two other players to Houston.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Dramatic comeback lifts Phils past Brewers

PBR - If there ever were a contest that could turn the Phillies' momentum around, Monday night was it.

Trailing by three entering the final frame, the Phillies manufactured four runs to edge past the Brewers at Citizens Bank Park, 7-6.  Ty Wigginton drilled a sacrifice fly to left allowing Erik Kratz to slide into home head first with the winning run.

The victory was the Phillies first this season after trailing through eight innings.

"It's good to see we can rally and come back," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We haven't seen too much of this."

Francisco Rodriguez opened the ninth with a strikeout but allowed the next six batters to reach base. Ryan Howard hit a two-run single up the middle and Carlos Ruiz followed with single liner to right, scoring Chase Utley and tying the game at 6-6. Kratz scored the game-winner after being inserted as a pinch runner for Howard once he reached third base. 

The Phillies' bullpen tossed three scoreless innings and Joe Savery notched his first career win.

Rodriguez surrendered three hits and three walks in the ninth, blowing his fifth save of the season.

Up until the ninth, the Brewers appeared to have the game in hand.

Carlos Gomez hit a three-run blast off Roy Halladay in the fourth inning and Randy Wolf surrendered two runs over six strong innings, striking out five.

Halladay struggled, scattering eight hits and six runs over six innings. Since returning from the disabled list on July 17 he's pieced together a 6.55 ERA.

Aramis Ramirez finished with two hits, including an RBI-double in the opening frame. Trailing 2-0 in the bottom of the first, Howard and Utley each homered to tie the contest at 2-2. The Brewers than scored four unanswered runs until Jimmy Rollins scored on a passed ball in the seventh to trim the deficit.

Howard finished with three hits.

The two clubs resume their three-game set on Tuesday with Cliff Lee scheduled to oppose Zack Greinke.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Cole Hamels' decision may impact Cliff Lee's future in Philly

PBR - Reports surfaced over the weekend claiming the Phillies may have interest in moving Cliff Lee before the trade deadline if they come to an agreement with Cole Hamels on a long term contract.

Hamels and the Phillies are negotiating a deal that possibly would keep the 28-year-old in Philadelphia through 2018. At this point, however, nothing is official. The deal figures to be something near six-years for $145 million. 

Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal with the Phillies prior to the 2011 season. He's still owed $98 million, including $25 million next year. Hamels' yearly salary projects to be similar if he remains in Philadelphia, leaving the Phillies in a tough financial spot.

As currently constructed, the Phillies have approximately $112 million in salary commitments for just 12 players in 2013.

If Hamels signs and is owed $25 million (as expected) the salary commitments jump to $137 million for 13 players. The threshold before clubs have to pay the luxury tax is $178 million, meaning the Phillies will have $44 million remaining to spend on 12 players to fill the 25-man roster.

If the Phillies were to exceed $178 million they would be required to pay a 20 percent tax for every dollar they surpass the threshold.

Aside from Hamels, Cliff Lee is arguably the Phillies' biggest trade chip. He's a proven All-Star with postseason experience, plus he is under contract for another three seasons. Ironically, the remaining dollars attached to his contract put a damper on his appeal to other clubs. If the Phillies moved him it's likely they would have to chip in and pickup a big portion of his remaining salary.

It's no secret Lee is having a down year, but he's still one of baseball's premier left-handers.

According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, Lee has a 21-team no-trade list in his contract, meaning he has say in nearly any possible deal.

Trading Lee is a difficult proposition. His contract is hefty and his value is too low right now to get comparable talent in return, but does it make sense?

What about the window of opportunity?  If the Phillies have one last season to make a championship run with the nucleus of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, et al., doesn't it make sense to keep Lee and go all in for one final season?

At this point, only Ruben Amaro Jr. truly knows. 

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Brewers | July 23 - 25

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Rollins' rip lifts Phillies past Giants in extras

PBR - For whatever reason, wins have not come easily for the Phillies this season at Citizens Bank Park and Sunday's victory over the Giants was no different.

Joe Blanton tossed eight strong innings, but it was Jimmy Rollins' RBI-single in the 12th inning that lifted the Phillies past the Giants, 6-5. It was the Phillies second extra inning game in as many days and third within the past week.

Rollins laced a Brad Penny fastball to center to score Carlos Ruiz who reached earlier in the frame on a walk. Laynce Nix, activated prior to Sunday's game after missing nearly three months with an injured calf, singled to right in the 12th allowing Ruiz to move from first to third.

Blanton scattered seven hits and three runs over his eight innings, striking out six. The Phillies' bullpen combined for four scoreless innings with Kyle Kendrick securing the win with 2 1/3 scoreless innings. He's now tossed 18 2/3 scoreless innings dating back to June 28.

Entering Sunday the Phillies had the worst record at home in the National League. The win snapped a seven-game home losing streak.

Nate Schierholz second homer of the afternoon, a solo shot to right, tied the contest in the eighth at 3-3.

The clubs traded runs in the first and the fourth, leaving the contest tied until the seventh when John Mayberry Jr. hit his second homer of the afternoon to give the Phillies a 3-2 advantage.

The Phillies now sit 12 games below .500 and welcome Milwaukee for a three-game set. Roy Halladay is scheduled to oppose Randy Wolf in the series opener Monday night.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Giants knock Hamels around, down Phils in extras

PBR - If today was in fact Cole Hamels' last start in Philadelphia he'll be leaving on a sour note.

The Giants knocked him around for 10 hits and five runs through 7 2/3 innings en route to a 6-5 win over the Phillies on Saturday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels tossed a career high 128 pitches in the losing effort.

Aware it may have been his final start as a Phillie, Hamels walked off the field to a standing ovation and acknowledged the crowd with a wave.

Reports continue to circulate that Hamels and Phillies are moving in the right direction regarding a possible agreement to keep the 28-year-old in Philadelphia, but nothing is formalized or guaranteed.

"I think that's just kind of up in the air with [general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.] and my agent [John Boggs] and just trying to work things out," Hamels said.

Of the 10 hits Hamels allowed Saturday, three were homers. He also walked three.

Trailing 5-4 in the eighth, Melky Cabrera tied the contest with a solo-shot off Hamels. Jonathan Papelbon tossed a scoreless ninth but imploded in the 10th, walking Cabrera and surrendering a bloop single to Buster Posey that allowed Cabrera to go from first to third. Gregor Blanco hit a drag bunt single down the first-base line later in the frame to score Cabrera and ultimately clinch the victory.

The Giants jumped to a 3-1 lead in the third with a solo homer by pitcher Matt Cain and a two-run blast by Posey. Hamels answered in the bottom of the frame with a solo shot of his own, the first of his career, to draw the Phillies to within two.

It was the first time pitchers homered off each other in the same game since Atlanta’s Kevin Millwood and Colorado’s Denny Stark did it on May 18, 2002. The last time it happened in the same inning was May 14, 1990 when Montreal’s Kevin Gross and Los Angeles’ Fernando Valenzuela went deep in the third inning.

Trailing 4-1 in the sixth, Ryan Howard clubbed a three-run blast to right center to tie the contest. 

Cain tossed eight innings, surrendering five runs on five hits, including three home runs. Sergio Romo retired the two batters he faced in the ninth and Santiago Casilla finished for his 24th save.

The two clubs will complete their three-game set on Sunday with Joe Blanton scheduled to oppose Barry Zito.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Today's contest may be more meaningful than you think: The latest on Cole Hamels

PBR - Today's start could be Cole Hamels' last as a Phillie. 

Yes, recent reports lean toward the Phillies acknowledging Hamels' preference of a six-year deal worth somewhere in the vicinity of $140 million, but nothing is a guarantee. The deal could hit a snag or Hamels could pass on the offer and test the waters in free agency.

Ironically, today he opposes the Giants' Matt Cain, a 27-year-old righthander that signed a six-year $126 million deal with San Francisco in April.

Given the bar the club set in 2010 with signing Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal, it makes sense Amaro and Co. at least offer a similar deal to Hamels. Several sources have indicated money isn't a sticking point, but the length of the contract is a concern.

The likelihood is the Phillies and Hamels will come to an agreement within the next 72-hours, but if that doesn't happen all bets are off.  Reports yesterday indicated teams already were pulling back on their interest in dealing for Hamels because it appeared to be a given that the Phils were offering him a deal he wouldn't pass up. 

 

A quick statistical analysis shows Hamels' numbers compare favorably to Steve Carlton and Robin Roberts, two Hall of Famers and arguably the two best pitchers in franchise history. It's not often you have a homegrown player of that ilk on your club and today may be his farewell performance at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies are floundering and interest is waning, but today's contest may be one to cherish. 

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Worley scuffles in the sixth as Phils fall to Giants

PBR - A tale of two Vance Worley's; that was the storyline of Friday night's contest against the Giants at Citizens Bank Park.

Worley hurled five innings allowing just one run before the wheels came off in the sixth. When the damage was complete Worley had surrendered six runs on six hits, including a Brandon Crawford grand slam. The Giants went on to defeat the Phils, 7-2.

"I got hurt on the one pitch, really," Worley said. "I felt strong. Everything was coming out the way I wanted it. I just missed." 

Worley opened the contest retiring 13 of the first 14 batters he faced, but eight of the final 13 he faced reached base. He tossed a career-high 119 pitches.

The loss knocked the Phils to 17-28 at home, which is the worst mark in the NL. The last season they ended with a losing home record was 2000.

"It is what it is right now," Worley said. "We have to keep going out there trying to win."

Tim Lincecum allowed five hits, two runs, two walks and struck out six in seven innings to notch the win.

"He's always a tough pitcher, but he mixed it up," said Ryan Howard, who homered off Lincecum in the sixth.

The two clubs resume their three-game set on Saturday afternoon with Cole Hamels slatted to face Matt Cain. 

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Giants | July 20 - 22

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Dodgers | July 16-18

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Phils take series from Rockies behind strong effort from Hamels

PBR - Cole Hamels hurled eight strong innings on Sunday, scattering six hits and a run to lead the Phillies past the Rockies 5-1 on Sunday afternoon at Coors Field. The win secured a series win, marking the first for the Phillies in over a month.

Hamels struggled early, needing 43 pitches to get through the first two frames, but he eventually found a grove and finished with 111 pitches, 71 for strikes. It was the sixth consecutive start in which he tossed at least seven innings, dating back to his June 19 start against the Rockies, which also happened to be his last victory before Sunday.

Antonio Bastardo tossed a scoreless ninth to finish the contest.

Hunter Pence led the Phils' offense with a three-run home run to the left in the fifth, pushing the Phillies to a 5-0 lead. The blast halted a personal 0-for-13 hitless streak.

Shane Victorino tripled in the first and later scored on a Carlos Ruiz single to left. The extra-base hit was the second for Victorino in as many days.  

Drew Pomeranz allowed all five runs for the Rockies in five innings while Dexter Fowler recorded a pair of hits in the losing effort.

The Phillies travel to Los Angeles to open a three-game series with the NL West leading Dodgers on Monday. Joe Blanton is scheduled to face Nathan Eovaldi in the opener.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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The Phils' best reliever you've never heard of

PBR - Unless you follow the Phillies' farm system you probably haven't heard of him, but reliever Tyler Knigge is quickly becoming an important piece of the organization's future.

A 12th round selection from the 2010 First-Year Player Draft out of Lewis-Clark State College (Idaho), Knigge opened the season with Class-A Clearwater and pieced together an impressive resume, highlighted by a 0.60 ERA through 44 2/3 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio (4.09) and nine saves earned him a spot in last month's Florida State League All-Star game.

The 23-year-old was promoted to Double A Reading on Thursday and already has notched a save.

Standing at 6-foot-4 and 215-pounds, the right-hander projects as a future setup man or closer. He has a lively fastball that sits in the mid-90's. He also throws a knuckle curve, sinker and a changeup. 

"He has a bright future, for sure," an American League scout said in a phone conversation yesterday. "Give him a little more time and he'll be on everyone's radar."

In a system hurting for talent, Knigge may make an impact in Philadelphia sooner rather than later.

"The jump to the next level will really tell us a lot," the scout said.  

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Worley excels as Phils down Rockies

PBR - The bleeding had to stop at some point and Vance Worley made sure of that, tossing a solid 6 2/3 innings in the Phillies 8-5 win over Colorado at Coors Field on Saturday night.

The win halted a five game losing skid.

Worley scattered eight hits, surrendering two runs. He also delivered a two-out, two-run double down the right field line in the sixth to push the Phils to a 6-2 lead. 

Chase Utley collected three hits and drove in a pair while Shane Victorino collected his first double in more than a month, finishing 2-for-5 with two runs scored. 

Carlos Ruiz broke the contest open in the first with a three-run blast to center field, giving the Phillies a 4-0 lead.

Worley escaped a bases loaded situation in the fifth by getting Michael Cuddyer to swing and miss on a fastball up in the strike zone.

Jake Diekman and Brian Sanches struggled in relief, allowing three runs in a combined 2/3's of an inning, but Jonathan Papelbon tossed a scoreless 1 1/3 innings to secure the victory and his 19th save of the season. 

Jeremy Guthrie failed to get past the fifth, surrendering four runs on seven hits and a pair of walks in the loss.

Wilin Rosario hit a three-run homer in the eighth off Sanches, but the Phils tacked on a pair of runs in the final frame to put the contest out of reach.

The series concludes on Sunday with Cole Hamels facing Drew Pomeranz.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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The Cole Hamels situation

PBR - Reports surfaced late Thursday that the Phillies intensified their talks with Cole Hamels about a contract extension. Now, details are starting to leak out.

Two sources close to the negotiations told me earlier today the hurdle isn't money, but rather the length of the contract. The Phillies are prepared to offer a four-year deal worth somewhere near $100 million, but Hamels is seeking seven years and the Phils are reticent to offer five-year contracts to pitchers.

The club did, however, sign 32-year-old Cliff Lee to a five-year deal with an option for a sixth prior to the 2011 season.

Hamels, 28, has publicly said he wants to remain in Philadelphia, but he also has admitted he's intrigued by the lure of the free agent market.

The Phillies already have $113 million in salary commitments for 2013. If Hamels returns next season that will push the payroll somewhere in the neighborhood of $135 million, meaning the Phils likely will be out of the running for any big name free agents this offseason (i.e., Josh Hamilton, Melky Cabrera, Michael Bourne).

Hamels has said all of the right things. He was hammered with questions in Kansas City during the All-Star Game festivities and gave honest answers. 

"I understand the nature of the business, I really do," Hamels said. "I've been a Phillie forever, and it's always going to be a possibility I'll be a Phillie forever. I don't think the three weeks [before the trade deadline] will matter as much."

Despite the likelihood the Phils will fall short of the postseason, Hamels sees the club remaining competitive in the future - a major selling point that he may not necessarily find on the free agent market.

"It takes a long time to build up a fan base like they did," Hamels said. "Now they have it. You don't ever want to just let it wash away. So I think they're always going to honor that."

Time is ticking away, but the Phillies appear willing to play ball with Hamels.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Rockies take second half opener over Phils, 6-2

PBR -  Christian Friedrich pitched six strong innings, Josh Rutledge had two hits and two RBIs in his major league debut and the Rockies beat the Phillies 6-2 Friday night at Coors Field in Denver.

The loss extended the Phillies' losing streak to five. The loss also dropped Philadelphia to 4-11 in Cliff Lee's starts this season.

Lee allowed three runs – two earned – and nine hits in six innings.

Ahead 3-1, Colorado broke the game open in the seventh, when it added three runs off reliever Michael Schwimer.

Friedrich allowed one run and five hits, struck out seven and walked one in the winning effort.

The Phillies have lost 11 of their past 12 games and now sit 15 games behind the NL East leading Nationals.

Perhaps what's even more telling is that the Phillies have just four more wins than the hapless Houston Astros, the worst team in the NL.

"I shake my head because I look out there and see Lee pitching. I can't believe we can't win some games with him pitching. We got outplayed," Manuel said.

The two clubs resume their three-game set on Saturday with Vance Worley (4-5, 3.54) opposing Jeremy Guthrie (3-8, 6.05).

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Rockies | July 13-15

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below).

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Diamond Mind Replay: The 1952 All-Star Game at Shibe Park

PBR - Before officially turning the page on the Midsummer Classic, the Review again collaborated with Diamond Mind Baseball to recreate the 1952 All-Star Game.

The '52 contest was the second ever held in Philadelphia, but carries even more importance because it remains the only All-Star Game ever halted early due to rain. (The 1961 ASG was stopped after nine innings due to rain and remained a tie.)

So, what if the rains never came? 

For those unfamiliar, Diamond Mind Baseball is a computer simulation that uses actual statistics and algorithms to recreate baseball games. Our previous simulations included a replay of the 1993 World Series and an Armed Forces Series simulated on Memorial Day.

***

Allie Reynolds tossed four scoreless innings and chipped in offensively with a key sacrifice bunt advancing the eventual winning-run as the American League trumped the National League in 12 innings at Shibe Park, 7-3.

Reynolds surrendered three hits and struck out five and claimed the win, earning the contest's Most Valuable Player Award.

Tied at 3-3 in the top of the 12th, Minnie Minoso opened the frame with a single to right and advanced to second on Reynolds' sacrifice-bunt. Yogi Berra followed with a single to shallow center, allowing Minoso to score easily, giving the AL a 4-3 advantage. Three walks and a double later, the AL had an insurmountable four-run lead.

Gerry Staley scuffled, allowing three hits, three walks and four runs over two innings for the NL in the loss.

Trailing 3-2 in the ninth, the American League's Larry Doby reached on a walk and advanced to third on a Jackie Jenson single down the left field line. Minoso followed with a sacrifice fly to left, scoring Doby and tying the contest at 3-3.

In total, the seven NL pitchers on the afternoon combined for 13 walks.

Athletics first baseman Ferris Fain collected a triple and two runs scored in the contest while teammate Eddie Joost drove in a pair of runs. Bobby Shantz tossed two scoreless innings, ensuring Connie Mack's players made a contribution in the victory.

Curt Simmons, who started for the NL, went two innings while allowing a run on a pair of hits and a pair of walks. Teammate Robin Roberts surrendered a run in his one inning of work.

Roy Campanella led all players with three hits, including the contest's lone home run.

[Box score and log will be posted later tonight.]

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Ruiz ready for center stage in tonight's Midsummer Classic

PBR - The secret on Carlos Ruiz is out.

Thanks to a stellar offensive first half, the 33-year-old catcher will be on baseball's center stage in tonight's All-Star Game. Though he won't start, he'll be a focal point as he's paired with Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

Knuckleballs often give catchers fits because of their unpredictability. The pitch flutters and changes directions often, causing catchers unfamiliar with the pitch to struggle.

In Ruiz's case, he hasn't caught a knuckleballer since  he was at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2005. Yet he's confident he'll do fine in tonight's 83rd-annual Midsummer Classic in Kansas City.

"I don't think I'm going to have trouble catching the knuckleball. I'm going to play long toss with him and we'll see how it moves," he said with a smile at the media availability during Monday's All-Star Workout Day. 

National League manager Tony La Russa expects to bring Ruiz and Dickey in together, likely to begin the third or fourth inning.

"We've been talking," Dickey said."I'm sure [Ruiz] will do fine."

Ruiz has always been recognized as an excellent defensive catcher, but this season it is his offense that has earned him a slot on the NL All-Star roster. Hitting .350 with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, he leads all catchers in most offensive categories.

"It makes me feel like I have to keep working hard," he said. "It's my first time here, but I hope it's not the last one. That gives me a lot of motivation."

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Tonight is in memory of Bobby Abreu

PBR - For tonight, let's remember Bobby Abreu.

Perhaps the most beleaguered Phillie of the past decade, Abreu's success often was met with contempt. People criticized his desire to win, harping on his seemingly lackadaisical approach to the game.

Yet on the evening of July 11, 2005, none of the criticisms mattered. That evening at Detroit's Comerica Park Abreu pieced together a record-breaking performance to win the Home Run Derby, marking the first time a Phillie won the annual mid-summer contest.  

For one night, Abreu was a champion.

"This is something amazing," he said afterward. "I don't know if I can sleep tonight."

Abreu opened the contest with 24 homers in the first round and eventually went on to outslug Ivan Rodriguez in the finals to win the title.

He finished with 41 homers, surpassing Miguel Tejada's record of 27 in 2004. The record still stands today, with Josh Hamilton coming the closest with 35 in 2008.

Abreu's best shot of the evening was a 517-foot shot onto the porch above the back row of the right-field bleachers. The blast was the third longest in Home Run Derby history.

"Just trying to put on a good show. They enjoy it, that's what it's all about," he said.

Ryan Howard went on to win the 2006 Home Run Derby, marking the only time in history that teammates have won back-to-back contests.

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Phillies stumble into the break with another loss

PBR - Brian McCann homered for the third straight game in the series and Dan Uggla hit a two-run shot to lead Atlanta to a three-game sweep of the Phillies in a 4-3 win on Sunday.

McCann hit a grand slam on Friday, a solo shot on Saturday, then hit the go-ahead homer in the seventh inning off Raul Valdes. 

Craig Kimbrel worked a scoreless ninth for his 25th save.

The Phillies have lost 10 of 11 games and are 13 games under .500.

Jason Pridie homered, doubled and had three RBIs as a last-minute replacement for Shane Victorino. Victorino was originally in the lineup, but was scratched just prior to the contest. Conflicting reports exist, but several sources claim Victorino was unhappy because Manuel dropped him to the seventh spot in the batting order.

Uggla snapped an 0-for-20 skid with a two-run home run in the fourth. 

Jair Jurrjens allowed six hits, three runs and struck out four over seven innings to win his second straight start. Vance Worley allowed three runs and seven hits in six innings for the Phillies.

The loss dropped the Phils record at home to 17-27 on the season.

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What do the 1986 Cardinals and 2012 Phillies have in common?

PBR - Last night's loss knocked the Phillies to 12 games below .500, a mark they haven't been at since 2000.

Looking back, there have been 30 teams that finished with 100 wins since 1980, not including the 2011 Phillies. Of those clubs, how many do you think finished the following season with a record below .500? 

If you guessed one you're correct.

Taking out the four clubs impacted by strike-shortened seasons (94 ATL, 94 SFG, 81 NYY, 81 KC), every club except the 1986 Cardinals finished with a record above .500. As a matter of fact, the 30 clubs averaged 95 wins in the season following their respective 100 win campaigns (the '86 Cards finished 79-82). 

In franchise history, prior to the 2011 club, the Phillies had two other teams that finished with at least 100 wins: 1976 and 1977. Obviously,  the '77 club finished above the .500 mark, and the '78 version finished 90-72. 

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Offense sputters as Phils fall again to Braves

PBR - Despite the stifling heat on Saturday night the Phillies' offense was void of a spark, scattering just six hits in a 6-3 loss to Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park.

Aside from a three-run second inning the Phils' offense fell stagnant, collecting just two more hits in the contest.

Joe Blanton's struggles against the Braves continued as he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits over 6 1/3 innings. 

Brian McCann opened the scoring in the second for the Braves with a solo home run to right. The Phillies answered with three runs in the bottom portion of the frame, highlighted by a Juan Pierre RBI-double. Blanton also chipped in with an RBI-single in the inning. 

The Braves scored five unanswered runs over the final seven innings to secure the victory. Michael Bourn collected three hits while Martin Prado and McCann each chipped in with a pair of RBIs.

Tommy Hanson hurled seven innings, allowing three runs while striking out six to claim the win. 

The loss knocks the Phillies to 14 games behind the division leading Nationals in the NL East. The club sits 12 games under .500 for the first time since the close of the 2000 season.

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A look back at Kendrick's Friday night start

PBR - Kyle Kendrick put together an impressive effort on Friday, tossing seven scoreless innings while scattering four hits. He kept the ball from the middle of the plate and had success with his changeup, throwing 20-of-30 for strikes (8 whiffs).

Looking back through Kendrick's starts since May 26th, he's allowed two runs or fewer in contests where he's thrown at least 20 changeups. Sure, the sample size is small, but Kendrick needs this pitch to be successful.

The graph below charts the location of each of Kendrick's pitches from last night. To make it clearer, I went ahead and boxed the pitch locations that led to hits. Three of the pitches, as you can see, were up in the zone and on the inside half of the plate. The other pitch was middle-in.

Kendrick pounded the inside last night and was successful. With a fastball that routinely sits around 90-mph, he needs to keep the ball away from the heart of the plate and he did just that. 

Over his last three starts he's averaging six innings a start and has a 3.50 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .239 off him and he has his changeup working in his favor. 

If the Phils are to contend for anything, the back-end of the rotation needs to be successful and that begins with Kendrick. 

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Bastardo coughs up a slam, Phils fall to Braves

PBR - Friday night's contest against the Braves was a microcosm of the 2012 season.

Kyle Kendrick pitched seven scoreless innings, surrendering four hits while striking out five.

Unfortunately, his effort was for naught as Antonio Bastardo allowed five runs in the eighth, highlighted by a Brian McCann grand slam, in a Braves 5-0 win over the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Bastardo walked the bases loaded and allowed two hits, including McCann's slam. His ERA now sits at 5.34.

"Bastardo has been our eighth inning guy, but tonight it just didn't work out," said Charlie Manuel. "He's a guy we really need to come through for us. We need to get him straightened out."

Ryan Howard, making his season debut for the Phillies, clubbed a double to deep center in his first at-bat. He finished 2-for-4.

Tim Hudson pitched seven solid innings for the Braves, scattering four hits and a walk.
 
The Phillies now sit 11 games below .500 for the first time since June 5, 2002.

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Phillies have a long road ahead for postseason run

PBR - The Phillies enter tonight's contest against the Braves at 10 games below .500. 

The time to make a move is now. 

This is the first year with an extra wild card spot, so the Phillies at least have that working in their favor. However, the odds seem stacked.

Imagine if the two-team wild card system had been in place in the National League since 2000. Instead of 12 wild card teams we now have 24. The average win total of the 24 teams that qualified for the postseason via the wild card is 89.95. 

To reach 90 wins the Phillies would have to go 53-25 in their remaining 78 contests. That's a .679 winning percentage.

To put that in perspective, the Nationals simply need to go 42-40 in their remaining 82 contests to reach 90 wins. That's a .525 winning percentage.

Remember, the journey of a mile begins with a single step.

The Phillies have reached a point where winning two-of-three isn't sustainable. Sweeps are necessary if they want a shot at the postseason.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Braves | July 6 - 8

PBR - Beginning with this weekend's series against the Braves, the Review will publish Sabermetric Scorecards prior to every series. We did something similar to this last year and had some success, so it's time to bring the feature back.

As I noted in a post earlier this week, I've done extensive statistical research over the past year and found the combination of OPS (on base plus slugging), WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched) and RDiff (run differential) to strongly correlate to winning percentage. 

My data-set included every club since 1900 and the correlation between winning percentage and these three categories was 92%, so it's not some untested theory - these three statistics are vital to winning.

The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories.  To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using the regression coefficients from my earlier research, I also place the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Howard to rejoin Phils on Friday; may start against Braves

PBR - Following Thursday night's loss in New York, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. announced Ryan Howard will rejoin the Phillies on Friday.

Howard, who tore his Achilles tendon last October, will undergo a final checkup at Citizens Bank Park on Friday afternoon. If all goes well, he'll be in the starting lineup against Atlanta.

Howard finished his rehab assignment with a 2-for-3 showing at Lehigh Valley on Thursday night. In seven games (between Lakewood and Lehigh Valley), Howard hit .500 (10-for-20) with a home run and 10 RBIs.

"He's been progressing pretty good," Amaro said before Thursday's game. "We'll see how he feels after tonight."  

The plan originally was to keep Howard on his rehab assignment through the All-Star break, but it appears Amaro and Co. may rather have Howard ease into his role and use the break as an opportunity to rest.

"If he plays this weekend, it may not be the worst thing for him to get some time off," Amaro said. "You just don't know how he'll react and what kind of adrenaline there will be. We'll take it one day at a time with him."

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Papelbon falters in ninth as Mets edge Phils

PBR - In a year full of disappointment, Johathan Papelbon entered Thursday night's contest in Citi Field as one of the few bright spots on the Phillies' roster.

Baseball, however, is a fickle game.

Papelbon faced seven batters in the ninth inning, surrendering two runs on three hits, a walk and a hit batsman, allowing the Mets to trump the Phillies, 6-5.

Papelbon allowed a leadoff double to Ike Davis in the final frame. Ronny Cedeno, inserted as a pinch-runner, advanced to third on a sacrifice bunt and eventually scored the tying run on a Daniel Murphy shot up the middle that caromed toward the first-base line after hitting Papelbon's left leg.

With the bases still loaded David Wright hit a flare into right field, dropping in front of a diving Hunter Pence to score Jordany Valdespin who reached after being hit by a pitch earlier in the inning.

The loss marked Papelbon's second blown save of the season, but more importantly, cost the Phillies a winnable contest against arguably the best starter in the National League in R.A. Dickey.

The knuckleballer entered tonight's contest with a 12-1 mark and a 2.15 ERA, but the Phillies scored two runs early, thanks to an RBI-single by Shane Victorino in the first and an RBI-double by Jimmy Rollins in the second.

Dickey pitched seven innings, allowing five runs on 11 hits. He struck out seven.

Cole Hamels retired seven of the final eight batters he faced, tossing seven innings while allowing four runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs. He struck out seven.

The Phillies had plenty of chances to break the game open, but finished 4-for-13 with runners in scoring position. 

Rollins finished the evening with three hits in the losing effort.

The Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park on Friday to host the Atlanta Braves. Kyle Kendrick (2-8, 5.35) is scheduled to start the series opener.

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★ Ray Charles ★ America the Beautiful ★ 2001 World Series ★

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Offense erupts late to give Lee his first win

PBR - The guerrilla is finally off Cliff Lee's shoulders. 

Thanks to an offensive eruption that included home runs from Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Ty Wigginton, Cliff Lee recorded his first win of the season on Wednesday afternoon as the Phillies clubbed the Mets at Citi Field, 9-2.

Lee tossed eight innings, allowing seven hits and two runs. He walked one and struck out nine.

The victory snapped a season high-tying six-game losing streak for the Phillies and marked Lee's first since Sept. 26, 2011

"It's been disappointing to me personally because I've let innings snowball and turn into a bigger problem than they should be," Lee told MLB.com. "It's been frustrating. It's been disappointing because we're in last place and we're a better team than that. Those two things for me are disappointing." 

Trailing 2-0, Chase Utley hit a two-run home run in the seventh and Carlos Ruiz followed with a solo shot, giving the Phillies a 3-2 advantage. The offense went on to score three runs in each of the final two innings to secure the victory.

Jimmy Rollins snapped an 0-for-18 streak with a double in the eighth.

Hunter Pence and Juan Pierre contributed two hits each in the victory.

The two clubs will meet again Thursday night in the finale of the three-game series at Citi Field. Cole Hamels (10-4, 3.08) will oppose knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (12-1, 2.15).

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Phils slammed by Mets in series opener, 11-1

PBR -The Phillies wanted to turn the page following a disastrous first-half, but last night's contest marked an ominous start to the second portion of the season.

Vance Worley endured one of the worst starts of his career, allowing six runs on 10 hits and a walk over four innings. He struck out three. 

"It just didn't go my way," Worley said. "My last couple outings, I had worse control and got away with it. I was just trying to get the ball into play early, and they hit the ball."

The loss pushed the Phillies to 10 games behind .500, a spot they haven't been in in nearly a decade (July 22, 2002).

Jon Niese tossed eight strong innings for the Mets, surrendering one run on three hits. He walked two and struck out three. 

Daniel Murphy paced the offense, finishing 4-for-5 with four RBIs. He fell a home run short of hitting for the cycle. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole each added three hits in the win.

Cliff Lee will attempt to turn things around and notch his first win of the season this afternoon when the Phils take on the Mets at Citi Field (1:10 p.m.). Lee is coming off his shortest outing of the season, allowing six runs on 10 hits over 4 2/3 innings in Miami on Friday. 

Opposing Lee will be Chris Young, a tall right-hander that is 3-2 with a 3.35 in seven career starts against the Phils.

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Why the Mets are six (soon to be seven) games over .500

PBR - Wheels and Tom McCarthy were discussing the Mets during tonight's telecast and how they have been successful this season despite average pitching and horrible defense.  

I've been talking with several statisticians over the past few weeks regarding a project I'm doing and we've been discussing what statistics best correlate to wins. Of the dozens of statistics in baseball, the consensus appears to be OPS, WHIP and Run Differential.

If we look at where the Mets compare in all three of these categories to the NL average, we see why they are perched second in the NL East.

•  NL average OPS: .718  |  Mets OPS: .725 (8 of 16)
•  NL average WHIP:  1.32  |  Mets WHIP: 1.28 (7 of 16)
•  NL average RD: -6.75  |  Mets RD: 27 (4 of 16)

I won't bore you with the regression analysis and everything else, but taking the standard deviations of where a team ranks in OPS, WHIP and RD has a 92% correlation rate to Winning Percentage.

Also, on a different note, I believe Wheels said the Mets starters have been horrible this season, but their xFIP ranks second in the NL at 3.57 and their ERA is tied for third at 3.42.

The more you know ...

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