Understanding Win Probability and Win Probability Added

PBR - Questioning Charlie Manuel's in-game decision making is a pastime of sorts for many Phillies fans and sport-talk pundits, but there actually is a metric to quantify the value of a managerial decision or important play.

Win Probability is an advanced metric that can either strengthen or debunk a given argument about how a managerial decision influences a ballgame. The metric can also mathematically identify specific plays in a game and place weighted values on those that significantly impact the final outcome. 

The concept of Win Probability is actually pretty straightforward. At any given time within a contest both clubs have a certain probability of winning. For example, let's say the Phillies have a three-run lead entering the bottom of the sixth inning, their chances of winning the game are significantly higher than if they were leading by four runs in the bottom of the second.

Win Probability fluctuates with every play and is highly dependent on the score, inning, number of outs and placement of base runners. Several matrices exist but a quick and easy one to use can be found on Greg Stoll's Web page [link].

Here's an example: Bottom of the eighth, score tied, runner on first, no one out. The home team has a 70% chance of winning according to Stoll's Win Probability calculator. Let's say the batter drops a sacrifice bunt to advance the runner to second. Turns out the Win Probability actually decreases to 69%, so the sacrifice was a neutral event. 

To demonstrate Win Probability I went ahead and charted Sunday's Phillies Nationals game.  The graph below shows how the probability of a Phillies victory fluctuated throughout the contest. I went ahead and marked the two events that significantly enhanced the Phillies' odds of winning.

 

Taking Win Probability a step further, another metric exists called Win Probability Added (WPA). This metric is calculated for every player in a given game and assigns a numerical value to how their contributions helped or hurt his team. 

Say, for example, a player comes to the plate in the top of the sixth with his team trailing by a pair of runs with one out and runners on second and third. Putting this situation into Stoll's calculator we can see the visiting team has a Win Probability of 0.369 (37%). If the player at bat hits a single the game situation changes - the deficit is trimmed to one run and runners are now at first and third, so the Win Probability has increased to 0.396 (40%). 

Keeping track of WPA, you credit the batter +.027 and debit the pitcher (fielder if an error is committed) -.027. If calculated for every play in a game the total WPA for the winning team should be .5 and the losing team -.5. You can then see how various players performed and see who did the most to help/hurt his club.

Win Probability and Win Probability Added are metrics I often refer to when analyzing player performance and managerial strategy. Moving forward, these metrics will become more intertwined in our articles.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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A closer look at Domonic Brown's defense

PBR - Fielding has never been one of Domonic Brown's strong suits and last night proved yet again he's still learning how to play outfield at the major league level.

A towering fly to right field last night by Nyjer Morgan glanced off the pocket of Brown's glove, allowing the Brewers to put together a string of four runs en route to a 6-2 win over the Phillies.

"I got back there good. I just dropped it," Brown said. "That play has to be made. Simple as that. I needed to come up big for my team and it didn't happen. No excuses. I've got to make that catch."

Brown has not yet officially committed an error but he has made several fielding gaffes since his call-up at last month's trade deadline. He's athletic but awkward and prone to taking poor routes to balls hit to the outfield.

“I’m sure he thinks enough about it and he wants to do good," manager Charlie Manuel said back during spring training. "It’s just a matter of him getting comfortable and he’s definitely put a lot of time in. I like to put him out there, let him play and see if he can improve.”

How many more games will it take to get comfortable?

Through three partial seasons in the majors Brown has played the outfield in 83 games and has a fielding percentage of .966. The league average fielding percentage for outfielders is .986. Also, according to the folks at Baseball Information Solutions and their Defensive Runs Saved Above Average metric, his defensive skills have cost the Phillies 22 runs over the past three years. This means his defense has cost the Phillies a run in more than a quarter of the games he's played in.

Brown's minor league fielding numbers are even more troubling, highlighted by 44 errors and a .956 fielding percentage.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Notes: Cliff Lee and the long ball

PBR - Cliff Lee surrendered a trio of solo home runs in Thursday's contest against Milwaukee bringing his total allowed on the year to 22. His career high is 30 and he has a chance to surpass that mark with at least nine starts remaining this season. 

The graphic below indicates the placement of Lee's pitches within the strike zone that were taken deep this season. The only homers not included are the three that occurred Thursday night. The graphic shows most of the home runs Lee has surrendered this season have come on pitches hovering over the middle of the plate.

The strange thing about Lee's problem is he seems to be prone to surrendering a home run early in the count when he's ahead. Heading into Thursday, nine of the 19 home runs he surrendered came on a first pitch or on an 0-1 count. In similar situations last season Lee performed somewhat better, allowing just four of his 18 homers in counts through 0-1.

Lee's HR/FB ratio entering Thursday was 13.7%, the ninth worst in the National League. His next closest HR/FB ratio came in his first full season as a starter with the Indians in 2004 (12.4%).

How do you explain Lee's gopher ball problem this season?

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Phillies vs. Brewers | Aug.16 - 19

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Better reliever: Bedrosian '87 vs. Lidge '08

PBR - My recent story about Cole Hamels and his pursuit of the Cy Young Award ignited an e-mail  exchange with a reader about Steve Bedrosian's 1987 campaign.

Bedrosian, for those that don't know, won the Cy Young Award in '87 as a closer with the Phillies. The club finished fourth with an 80-82 record but "Bedrock" notched 40 saves and trumped Rick Sutcliffe and Rick Reuschel for the award. He's also one of just four pitchers in Phillies history to win the award (Halladay, Carlton and Denny are the others).

The reader wanted to see how Bedrosian's award-winning season compared to Brad Lidge and his 2008 season. For the record, Lidge finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting in '08.

The simple chart below lists some common statistics comparing '87 Bedrosian and '08 Lidge.

As you can see, Lidge has the advantage in eight of the ten categories and was more dominant than Bedrosian. Not included in the chart is opponents batting average against but Lidge holds that advantage too (.227 vs. Bedrosian | .198 vs. Lidge).

Going a step further, let's look at how Bedrosian and Lidge performed in high-pressure situations.

 Fangraphs calculates various win probability metrics and one of them is titled 'clutch.' This metric measures how well players/pitchers perform in defined clutch situations relative to how they would have performed in a non-pressure situation. Bedrosian posted a 0.70 clutch rating while Lidge posted a 1.20 rating, meaning Lidge performed better than Bedrosian in high-stress situations. The entire formula is complicated so for the best explanation visit Fangraph's page All About Clutch.

To put it simply, '08 Lidge > '87 Bedrosian.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Ruf's bat powers Reading in playoff chase

PBR - Darin Ruf may not be a household name in Philadelphia yet, but he's certainly become a fan favorite in Reading.

Selected by the Phillies in the 20th round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, Ruf has put together some impressive numbers over four minor league seasons but this season is shaping up to be his best yet. The first baseman leads the Reading Phillies in almost every offensive category and has been on a tear since the start of the month, hitting .350 with 11 home runs and 16 RBIs over the last 15 games.

Ruf homered again on Wednesday night in a 6-5 loss to Trenton. The two-run blast was his 29th of the season. 

"It's impressive," manager Dusty Wathan told the Reading Eagle. "It's as hot as I've ever really seen anybody in person. I don't know what to say. He's just locked in."

Ruf's 29 home runs is seven better than anyone else at the Double-A level. He also leads all Double-A players in on-base plus slugging (.997) and slugging (.592). His 29 homers is the most a Reading player has hit since Ryan Howard launched 37 in 2004 and his success is also a major reason why Reading is battling the New Britain Rock Cats for a spot in the Eastern League playoffs.

Ruf celebrated his 26th birthday last month, so the time for him to make a lasting impression is now. Over four seasons in the minors he's hitting .304 with 58 home runs and 262 RBIs. 

"He has great tools, but it's a matter of putting everything together and finding a good fit," a scout told The Review. "He's blocked by [Ryan] Howard at first base, so the outfield is probably the only place he'll make an impact at in Philly."

Ruf has played the outfield 16 times this season, including left field on Wednesday night, and has not committed an error.  

"He can excel," Wathan said. "It's all about getting the chance now."

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Hamels a strong contender in NL Cy Young race

PBR - Cole Hamels is no stranger to the Cy Young Award debate.

Fresh off tossing a second straight shutout and riding a 22 inning scoreless streak, Hamels sits among the top tier contenders for the award in the National League. He finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting in 2011 and sixth in 2007.

“Right now, Cole is throwing real good," said manager Charlie Manuel. "His stuff is real good. He’s commanding the low part of the strike zone and he can go high when he wants to. He has his changeup, his cutter, his fastball. He’s locked in.”

Hamels' 2.91 earned run average ranks eighth in the NL and his 13 victories ranks fifth. He also is tied for second in the NL in innings pitched (163.2) and is tied for third in strikeouts with 158.

“I play to win every game I can and with that you get awards for it," Hamels said. "I play to win. I’m not going to give up when the season supposedly can be given up on. I want to start streaks right now that can transfer into next season.”

Hamels appears to have at least nine starts remaining to solidify his case as the league's best pitcher but he has some stiff competition.

The chart below shows Hamels and 10 other starting pitchers that have a viable chance to win the NL Cy Young Award and looks at four unique metrics that demonstrate dominance on the mound.

Before we get to the chart though, let's take a look at the meaning behind the four metrics.

• Cy Young Rating (CYR): A metric crafted by Bill James and Rob Neyer, CYR is calculated using a formula that closely resembles past results of Cy Young Award balloting. ESPN's version uses a bonus for placement in the standings but I've eliminated that portion of the formula for easier computation.

• WAR: Wins Above Replacement is a statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

• ERA+: Recognized as Adjusted Era, ERA+ adjusts a pitcher's earned run average according to the pitcher's ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher's league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.

• xFIP: Recognized as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, xFIP predicts a pitcher’s future performance using a calculation that includes home run to flyball percentages.

Now that the metrics are out of the way let's jump into the numbers.

If the season were to end today the numbers point toward either Johnny Cueto or R.A. Dickey winning the vote with Hamels likely right behind.

Since we included xFIP we can see that Cueto's current ERA of 2.45 is likely to jump a bit as his xFIP is a full run higher. We can expect a smaller jump in Dickey's ERA as it currently sits at 2.72 with a 3.08 xFIP. This means Hamels may have a chance to jump ahead of Cueto but likely not over Dickey. 

The other interesting player in the running is Stephen Strasburg. With rumors swirling about a potential innings limit his chances at making a serious run at the Cy Young Award may be limited, but if he makes another nine starts things could get really interesting.

To compare the pitchers more easily I went ahead and ranked each pitcher in each of the four categories. The top pitcher in each category received 11 points, second pitcher in each category 10, and so on. I then added each pitcher's rankings and developed the chart below. Notice the color scheme on each bar indicates how many points each pitcher received via a specific category.

What is your opinion on the Cy Young Award race? Comment below and let us know.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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The best catcher in Phillies history is ...

PBR - With his ceremony last week Mike Lieberthal became the third catcher inducted onto the Phillies Wall of Fame joining fan favorites Bob Boone and Darren Daulton.

That's where the debate begins.

Lieberthal, Boone and Daulton were excellent catchers and rightly deserve a spot in Phillies lore, but neither should be regarded as the best in franchise history.

Instead, meet Jack Clements.

Clements was the first catcher to wear a chest protector and the only left-handed throwing catcher to have a legitimate career in the major leagues. He spent 14 seasons with the Phillies and manufactured career numbers that compare favorably to several catchers in the Hall of Fame, yet he's an unknown in Philadelphia.

Born in Philadelphia, Clements broke into the majors at 19 and went on to play in 1160 games from 1884 to 1900, spending 14 seasons in Philadelphia with the Phillies and a partial season with the Keystones of the short-lived Union Association.

Clements' numbers (.287/.421/.769) rank among the best when compared to other 19th century players, plus he's the lone 19th century player to finish his career with 1,000 or more games with more career homers (77) than triples (60). Baseball historian Bill James ranks Clements as the 58th best catcher of all time, so he too deserves a spot among the Phillies elite.

The Wall of Fame (see Lieberthal's induction) is a nice way for the Phillies to pay tribute to players, but induction is related more so to likability than statistical achievement. Lieberthal was a solid backstop, but he played on some mediocre clubs and his statistical contributions pale in comparison to Clements'.
 

There is no single baseball statistic that proves absolute superiority, but there are several advanced metrics that solely exist for the purpose of direct comparison. Using these metrics we'll compare Clements and Lieberthal to the other four best catchers in franchise history: Boone, Daulton, Spud Davis and Andy Seminick.

For the record, James ranks Boone as the 21st best catcher of all time, Daulton 25th, Seminick 57th and Davis 71st. Lieberthal failed to make his Top 100 list (Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract).

The first metric we'll use to compare our six players is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This number shows how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

 

The second metric we'll examine is Average Season Wins Above Replacement (asWAR). This number is the same as WAR except it is a seasonal average based on the statistics a player would amass in an average season.

 

The third and final metric we'll examine is Win Shares (WS). Devised by James, this number assigns a positive value to a player for his contributions for the year. A single win share represents one-third of a team win.

 

Clements has a sizable advantage over the other five catchers in WAR and asWAR and sits behind only Daulton in career Win Shares. Lieberthal, on the other hand, is weak in all three categories and just edges out the soft-hitting Boone in career Win Shares. 

Clements WAR and asWAR numbers are better than those of Hall of Fame catchers Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk so he can easily be pegged as the franchise's best backstop and is deserving of acknowledgement by the Phillies. 

Taking nothing away from Lieberthal, Boone or Daulton, but the Wall of Fame has become nothing more than a popularity contest leaving some of the best players in franchise history, like Clements, on the outside looking in.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Lieberthal inducted onto Phillies Wall of Fame

PBR - Mike Lieberthal paused for a few moments prior to his speech on Friday night to gather his thoughts and reflect on the celebration surrounding his career with the Phillies.

Seconds felt like an eternity.

"I was sweating quite a bit but I made it through," Lieberthal said afterward. "I was kind of getting a little choked up so the speech was a bit harder to get through."

Lieberthal, a two-time All-Star and a fan-favorite, became the 34th member of the Phillies Wall of Fame on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park. A plaque with his name and picture will hang in Ashburn Alley beyond the center field wall.

"I'm not a Hall of Famer, but having an organization that does this, just to go along with the great players that played here is great," Lieberthal said. "I was a good player but very lucky to be on one team for that long. There's a lot of good players that come through Philadelphia that, in the business of the game, they only stay for two or three years."  

A catcher, Lieberthal spent 13 seasons in Philadelphia and won a Gold Glove in 1999. He is the franchise leader in hits (1,128), home runs (149) and games caught (1,139). 

"He was a good catcher that could also hit," said former teammate Jimmy Rollins. "He went through those tough years in the late '90s when he made his mark."

Lieberthal joins Bob Boone and Darren Daulton as the only catchers in the Phillies Wall of Fame. From a statistical standpoint he sits among the best in franchise history with Boone, Daulton, Spud Davis, Andy Seminick and Jack Clements. He finished his career with a WAR (wins above replacement) of 13.6 and a 101 OPS+.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Worley scuffles as Braves down Phillies

PBR - Vance Worley surrendered four runs on six hits and failed to get past the third inning as the Braves beat the Phillies 6-1 on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park.

Worley had pitched 3 2/3 innings or fewer just twice in his previous 41 starts.

The Braves jumped ahead with three runs in the third with a Freedie Freeman two-run double highlighting the frame. 

John Mayberry Jr. collected the Phillies' lone run with a solo shot in the fourth. 

Ben Sheets tossed 7 1/3 innings to claim the victory, improving his record to 4-1. Brian McCann and Dan Uggla chipped in with two hits each and every position player in the Braves' lineup collected at least a hit.

The loss knocked the Phillies to 13 1/2 games behind the Wild Card leader. The contest also marked the end of a sellout streak at Citizens Bank Park of 257 games dating back to July 6, 2009.

The two clubs resume their three-game set on Tuesday with Cole Hamels scheduled to face Mike Minor.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Patience pays off for veteran Erik Kratz

PBR - Things have never been better for Erik Kratz.

A minor league journeyman, the 32-year-old has made the most of his playing time with the Phillies in the absence of All-Star Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider.

Prior to this season he had played in only 11 big league games, but appeared in 728 minor league contests.

Through 15 games this year with the Phils Kratz is hitting .379 with four home runs and nine RBIs.

"Kratz is a guy I've seen a couple years ago, in spring training, and I liked him then," manager Charlie Manuel said. "He's very durable, he's strong and in really good condition. You can work him a lot."

A graduate of Christopher Dock High School in Lansdale, Kratz grew up watching the Phillies with his father and watched his share of contests at Veterans Stadium. He was drafted by Toronto in the 29th-round of the 2002 Amateur Draft and bounced around the minors until signing with the Phillies in 2010.

His story is similar to that of retired catcher Chris Coste, another journeyman that spent 12 seasons in the minor leagues before finally breaking into the majors with the Phillies in 2006.

"It's taken some time, but I've been preparing everyday so I'm ready to go when the call comes," Kratz said.

Kratz garnered attention during spring training with solid defense and a strong bat - hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a pair of home runs.

"He's really improved his hitting over the last two years. Since last year, he's improved his hitting 100 percent. His swing is getting a lot better. There are still things he needs to do, but as far as staying on slow stuff … When he's patient, he's got a lot of power."

In a season seemingly void of relevance, Kratz's future as a major leaguer may hang in the balance.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Sabermetric Scorecard | Aug. 6 - 8 | Phillies vs. Braves

PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below). 

Using regression coefficients from  earlier research, I placed the individual standard deviations into the following formula: (0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a particular team.

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Quick Note: Dealing with Brian McCann

PBR - Brian McCann enters Monday's contest with a  .385 average and 16 RBIs against the Phillies this season. Six of his 18 home runs on the season have come against Philadelphia.

The graph to the right demonstrates McCann's success at hitting balls in the strike zone via batting average. The darker the color the more dangerous he is - so you can easily see the Phillies need to keep the ball low and inside to succeed in getting him out.

The good news for the Phillies is that McCann has struggled as of late, hitting .200 over the past two weeks with two home runs and five RBIs.

McCann is a career 1-for-6 against Monday's starter Vance Worley. 

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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A small sample size look at Domonic Brown at the plate

PBR - Sample size is important when looking at any statistic, but we're going to take a quick look at Domonic Brown and how he's fared in his six games with the Phillies since being promoted last week. 

These numbers won't dictate anything or uncover a significant finding (at least not yet), but they can at least foster a discussion about Brown and his possible maturity at the plate. 

Including today's contest, Brown is hitting .318 through 22 at bats. 

According to Fangraphs, Brown has limited his swing and misses - dropping from a 13.5% mark in 2010 to 4.8% in 2012. This number indicates the percentage of pitches he's swung at and missed.

His contact figures also have increased, jumping from 72.2% in 2010 to 85% in 2012. This category calculates the overall percentage of pitches he's made contact on.

Again, nothing can really be taken away from these numbers, but they are something to keep an eye on as the season progresses and he has more plate appearances.  

What are you looking for from Brown during the remainder of the season?

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Howard delivers after tough day at the plate, Phils win

PBR - Ryan Howard was having an awful day at the plate on Sunday, but it took just one at-bat to redeem a lackluster afternoon.

With the bases loaded in the ninth inning Howard singled to right allowing Juan Pierre to score the winning run as the Phillies trumped the Diamondbacks 5-4 on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.

Prior to the game-winner Howard was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and was riding a 5-for-35 streak with 20 strikeouts.

"You're only as good as your last at-bat," Howard said. 

Erik Kratz and Chase Utley chipped in with two hits each in the win. Cliff Lee surrendered three home runs over eight innings, including a two-run shot to Chris Johnson in the second inning. He's yet to win a contest at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Jonathan Papelbon notched the win and improved to 3-4.

With the Phillies trailing 4-3 in the eighth, Diamondback's reliever David Hernandez uncorked a pair of wild pitches, committed a throwing error and left the contest with an apparent leg injury, but not before surrendering three hits and the tying run.

Paul Goldschmidt broke a 3-3 tie with a solo shot in the sixth to give the Diamondbacks a brief one-run advantage.

Trevor Cahill hurled seven innings, scattering six hits while allowing three runs. Josh Collmenter surrendered three hits and the game winning run in 1/3 of an inning.

The win moved the Phillies to fourth in the NL East. 

The Phillies will open a three-game series with Atlanta on Monday at Citizens Bank Park. Vance Worley is scheduled to oppose Ben Sheets. 

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Blanton's World Series blast will live on in Phils' history

PBR - Joe Blanton was acquired at the 2008 trade deadline to strengthen the backend of the starting rotation and proved to be an integral piece of the Phillies' World Series run.

Ironically, Blanton's most memorable moment with the Phillies was with the bat. 

With two-out in the bottom of the fifth in Game 4 of the World Series Blanton parked an Edwin Jackson 2-1 fastball into the seats in left field. The solo blast gave the Phils a 6-2 advantage over Tampa Bay and marked the first time since 1974 that a pitcher hit a home run in a World Series contest.

"My job is not to go out there and hit home runs," Blanton said afterward. "My job is to go out there and throw the ball well and give my team a chance to win. And when you hear that applause coming off the mound after pitching, you kind of get that sense you did your job." 

Blanton went on to toss six strong innings, surrendering two runs on four hits as the Phillies trumped the Rays 10-2. 

Dating back to the trade deadline, Blanton failed to get past the fifth inning just once. He finished the '08 postseason 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

"It was almost like getting to start over," Blanton said. "So it almost made me think, all right, I can start over here, a team competing for the playoffs and try to put some good starts together, and help out any way I can." 

Blanton was traded to Los Angeles earlier this week after the Dodgers claimed the 31-year-old via waivers. The right-hander, earning $8.5 million this year, will be a free agent after this season.

"I remember the parade, going down Broad Street and all the fans everywhere," Blanton said. "Just the thrill of being able to come to such a baseball city. The fans have been unbelievable the whole time I've been here. I've had an amazing time here." 

What will you remember most about Blanton's time in Philadelphia?

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Halladay, Kratz lead Phils past Diamondbacks

PBR - Roy Halladay tossed seven strong innings and Erik Kratz homered and drove in a pair to lead the Phillies past the Diamondbacks 3-0 on Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park.

Halladay scattered three hits and allowed just four runners to claim his first victory since May 17. He struck out five and showed increased velocity from his recent starts, topping out at 93 mph.

"The last two games, I felt like things were going in the right direction," Halladay said. "So to be able to get results after you're making changes like that, it's nice. [Pitching coach Rich Dubee] has been working a lot with me. So it's nice to have it pay off and feel like you're improving."

Kratz, filling in for Carlos Ruiz, drilled a 2-0 pitch into the seats in left in the third to give the Phillies an early advantage. An inning later he worked a walk to force home another run to increase the Phillies lead to 2-0. Domonic Brown hit a two-out RBI single in the eighth to secure the victory.

Josh Lindblom notched two strikeouts in the eighth and Jonathan Papelbon finished off a four-hitter for his 24th save of the season. Ryan Howard chipped in with a pair of hits.

Joe Saunders surrendered two runs over 6 1/3 innings in the losing effort, snapping a four-game winning streak.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Carlos Ruiz sidelined with plantar fasciitis

PBR - The storybook season for Carlos Ruiz has hit a snag.

Ruiz was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Saturday after an MRI revealed a partial tear in his left foot. He's expected to miss four to six weeks and will be reevaluated later this month.

"I feel real sad, because I was thinking it would maybe be day by day, you know? But there's nothing I can do except rest and then make sure when I come back I'm ready to help the team," Ruiz said.

Ruiz, an All-Star this season, is hitting .335 and collected career highs in home runs (14) and RBIs (58). Infielder Hector Luna was recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to fill Ruiz's roster spot.

Ruiz initially felt pain when the Phillies were playing the Dodgers in L.A. last month, but the pain became increasingly worse over the last week.

"That's baseball," Ruiz said. "I was real sad when I called my family, because I never expected to be out this long. But it happened, so I'll have to keep working," he said. "I don't know how long it's going to be. I hope less than a month."

Erik Kratz and Brian Schneider will assume the catching duties in Ruiz's absence.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Future is now for Domonic Brown

PBR - The future is now for Domonic Brown.

The 25-year-old finally has the spotlight to himself in the Phillies' outfield now that Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino both have been traded. The remainder of the season will likely be Brown's final audition before the organization decides on his future value - is he a budding superstar, a productive everyday player, or simply a fringe outfielder.

Baseball America ranked Brown as one of baseball's best prospects prior to the 2011 season, but a .236/.314/.382 line through 280 major league plate appearances has sparked concern. Add some shoddy defense (.949 fielding percentage) and you can understand why Ruben Amaro Jr. wanted Brown to hone his skills through another entire season at Triple A Lehigh Valley.

Brown was limited to 60 games with the IronPigs this year after missing a month with an injured right knee. He was hitting .286 with 5 home runs and 28 RBIs when he received word of his promotion.

"It feels great to be up here again," Brown said. "I'm looking forward to showing this is where I belong."

Charlie Manuel said he expects to play Brown everyday, so some pressure should already be alleviated.

"I know what I need to do," Brown said. "It simply is a matter now of actually going out there and doing it."

What will you be looking for from Brown during the remainder of the 2012 season? Comment below and let us know.

- Patrick Gordon  is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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