Why Adderall? Carlos Ruiz is just the latest to test positive for the amphetamine

PBR - Adderall is not the first performance-enhancing drug to tarnish an athlete, nor will it be the last, but it is the latest.

Carlos Ruiz was suspended by Major League Baseball for 25 games on Tuesday for testing positive for using the outlawed amphetamine for a second time. The suspension comes just days after a pair of football players tested positive for the banned substance and were suspended by the National Football League.   

Of all the illegal substances available for consumption, why Adderall? What is the lure of a medication meant to treat ADHD - Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder?

Dr. Larry Fluking, a Philadelphia-based psychiatrist, claims the amphetamine can help an athlete immensely, especially when even the slightest of benefits can alter an outcome and result in success.

"Most of these players will take any edge they can get," Fluking said. "From alertness and concentration, to speed and aggressiveness, Adderall helps with it all. It can enhance hand-eye coordination and gives you an added jolt, mentally and physically."

Fluking contends Adderall can also increase speed, strength and power.

"Most people don't think of Adderall as something like a steroid because it doesn't have the same cachet, but it most certainly is a performance-enhancing drug," Fluking said. "The impacts are certainly evident."

Ruiz, who turns 34 in January, posted career highs last season in home runs, RBIs, batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, despite missing several weeks because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

Adderall has been banned by all four of America's professional sports. However, like other sports, Major League Baseball allows players to obtain an exemption if they have a medical need for the drug. According to published reports, MLB granted 105 exemptions in 2011.

"Not surprising in the least," Fluking said of the number of exemptions. "Among the disorders most commonly diagnosed ADHD is near the top. In turn, this means prescriptions are becoming easier to get."

According to MLB's drug policy, if a league-certified clinician diagnoses Ruiz with ADHD and prescribes him Adderall he can apply for an exemption. A similar procedure allows players to safely take Ritalin.  

A first positive test for a stimulant, such as Adderall, results in increased testing and a warning, but not a suspension. Since Ruiz previously tested positive he was subjected to six unannounced drug tests over the previous year and failed at least once. Ruiz would be suspended for 80 games if he tests positive for a third time.

According to Fluking, amphetamines like Adderall remain in the system for five days and are easily detectable in a standard drug test.

"With the ease of how a drug test finds Adderall usage, I'm baffled as to why athletes think they can get away with using it," Fluking said. "It isn't like this is a cutting-edge drug that is difficult to be detected." 

In September the Phillies exercised a $5 million option  on Ruiz for 2013. Both sides were hoping to discuss a long-term extension during the winter but these recent developments may alter those discussions.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Kratz to enter spring training as Phils' starting catcher

PBR - The lone person to benefit from Carlos Ruiz's suspension for using amphetamines is Erik Kratz.

 

The 32-year-old will enter spring training as the club's top catcher on the depth chart (at least through the first month) and likely will shoulder the majority of starts until Ruiz returns from his suspension in late April.

 

Kratz appeared in 50 games with the Phillies last season, hitting .248 with nine homers and 26 RBIs. The majority of his playing time (39 games) came over the final two months of the season following injuries to Ruiz and Brian Schneider.

 

Ironically, the Phillies added catching depth on Tuesday even before the Ruiz news broke - signing free agent catcher Humberto Quintero earlier in the day to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. The 33-year-old hit one homer and collected 19 RBIs in 43 games with the Royals last season.

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phils' Carlos Ruiz suspended 25 games for amphetamine use

PBR - Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was suspended Tuesday for the first 25 games of the 2013 season for using an amphetamine.

 

According to a league source, Ruiz tested positive for Adderall, an amphetamine commonly used to control attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This marked Ruiz's second positive test for the stimulant.

 

Ruiz will be eligible to participate in spring training, including exhibition games, but Erik Kratz figures to open the season for the Phillies behind the plate.

 

The 33-year-old was an All Star last season, putting up career highs in homers (16), RBIs (68), and batting average (.325).

 

"The Phillies fully support Major League Baseball's drug program," the team said. "We are disappointed by the news of this violation of the program. We will support Carlos in an appropriate manner and move forward to achieve our goal to play championship-caliber baseball in 2013."

 

"I am sincerely regretful for my mistake in taking a prohibited stimulant," Ruiz said in a statement issued by the Major League Baseball Players Association. "I apologize to my teammates, the Phillies organization and the Philadelphia fans. I will serve the imposed 25-game suspension to begin the season and I look forward to returning to the field and working toward bringing a championship back to Philadelphia in 2013."

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Philly native and Germantown High graduate Bucky Walters is on the Hall of Fame ballot, but is he worthy of enshrinement?

PBR - Germantown native Bucky Walters is one of six former players on the pre-integration era ballot to be reviewed and voted upon during baseball's winter meetings for possible induction into the Hall of Fame next summer.

Along with six players, the ballot also includes three executives and one umpire. Candidates need to receive nine votes from a panel of 12 voters for enshrinement. Joining Walters on the ballot are Samuel Breadon, Wes Ferrell, Marty Marion, Tony Mullane, Hank O’Day, Alfred Reach, Jacob Ruppert, Bucky Walters and Deacon White.

Born in Mount Airy, Walters was signed by the Boston Braves out of Germantown High School in 1929. He made his major league debut in 1931 and struggled as an infielder until 1935, hitting .243 and putting together an OPS+ of 72. Part of his struggles in Boston can be attributed to a broken thumb.

Walters was sold to the Phillies on June 14, 1934 and was converted to a starting pitcher prior to the 1935 season by manager Jimmie Wilson. His numbers in Philadelphia were not stellar - over five seasons he went 39-53 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. His ERA+ during his time with the Phillies was 99.

The Phillies traded Walters to Cincinnati in June of 1938. In 11 seasons with the Reds he finished 160-107 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His 1939 campaign (27-11, 2.29 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) is still considered one of the best pitching seasons in baseball history and won him the Most Valuable Player award while also leading the Reds to the National League pennant. The Reds again reached the World Series in 1940 and Walters led the way, tossing a pair of complete games to lift Cincinnati past Detroit.

A six-time All Star, Walters retired in 1950. From 1935-1949, a 15-year span, he led major league baseball in wins with 198.

The chart to the right demonstrates how Walters compares to other starting pitchers of his time (HOF'ers that began their career between 1930 and 1950) that are in the Hall of Fame. The metric used is Adjusted Pitching Runs (APR). APR is an advanced pitching statistic used to measure the number of runs a pitcher prevents from scoring compared to the league's average pitcher in a neutral park in the same amount of innings. The statistics is similar to ERA+ but offers a quantitative counterpart.

Purely based on APR, you can easily see Walters falls a bit short. The average APR of the eight pitchers in the study (not including Walters) is 242.

Another means to compare Walters to his peers is via Command (Cmd) and Dominance (Dom.) The formula for Command is K/BB. The formula for Dominance is (K*9)/IP. Again, looking this time at the chart to the left, Walters falls short of his contemporaries.

Looking at the numbers, Walters does not appear deserving of a spot in Cooperstown. The average APR of Hall of Famers that began their career between 1930 and 1950 is 242 - Walters is 181.

Similarly, the average Cmd number of the HOF'ers that began pitching during 1930 and 1950 is 1.7 - the Dom number is  5.6; Walters' Cmd number was 1.0 and Dom number was 3.2.

Walters was good and certainly was one of the best professional players to have played in the majors from the Philadelphia area, but he's not a Hall of Famer.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter. 

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How Upton compares to other free agents via Wins Above Replacement; how that may impact an offer from the Phillies

PBR - Wins Above Replacement, affectionately known as WAR, is a statistical metric that measures  a player’s total contributions to their team in one simple number.

 

Think of WAR as the number you would look at if a key player were injured and a replacement player, either from the minors or the bench, were inserted into their place - it answers the question of how much value (wins)  a team would be losing.  

 

I won't bore you with the mathematical formula but you can easily find WAR on FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR). The metric is league and park neutral, so you can compare WAR figures across years, leagues, and parks.

 

With the news surrounding free agent B.J. Upton, I went ahead and put together a simple chart including the WAR figures for several free agent outfielders - the chart includes WAR from last season along with a three-year average '(10-'12.)

 

Now that we see the WAR for each of these players, how can we decipher their value on the free agent market?

 

Sky Andrecheck attempted to answer this question with a post a few years back on Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts Web site - WAR, Salary, and Service: Estimating Dollars Per Win. Andrecheck - and came up with the following equation using figures from 2008 to determine salaries for free agents: 5.53 + (WAR*1.23).

 

To come up with a balanced number I went ahead and found two salaries for each player - one based on '12 WAR and another on the three-year average - I then averaged the two salaries together and came up with the following figures (salaries in the millions, per season):

 

 

By no means is this method perfect. It is a given that Josh Hamilton will receive more than $12 million a year, but the other salaries at least seem plausible if all things are considered equal. Upton made $7 million in 2012, but now he's looking at $13 to $15 million. Shane Victorino made $9.5 million and he's also looking for something in the vicinity of $13 million. 

 

If nothing else we can at least compare the WAR figures to the salaries from Andrecheck's formula and determine the comparative value of the five free agent outfielders included in the chart.

 

Think of it this way, if both Upton and Victorino are going to give the Phillies the same amount of wins over an average player, than isn't Victorino  a better option if he can be bought at a significantly cheaper price?

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Upton decision expected this week

PBR - The Phillies and Braves appear to be the frontrunners to land free agent centerfielder B.J. Upton, according to several published reports.

 

The 28-year-old plans to make a decision this week, Marc Topkin reported in Sunday’s Tampa Bay Times.

 

Upton batted .246 with 28 home runs, 31 stolen bases and a .752 OPS last season in Tampa Bay. His best season came in 2007, when he hit 24 home runs with a .300 batting average and an .894 OPS.

 

Upton is believed to be looking for a five-year deal worth somewhere near $75 million. Phillies officials, including manager Charlie Manuel, met with him earlier this month.

 

The Nationals and Giants have also been linked to Upton.

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Projections for 2013 Phillies: Bill James | The Rotation Edition

PBR -  I recently reviewed the 2013 Bill James predictions for the Phillies offense, so here is a look at the projections for the pitching staff. Again, the James predictions are often considered overly optimistic. Once other projection packages are released I'll do a comparison and release the Review's '13 projections.

 

For purposes of this post I've just included the starting rotation.

 

Projected figures are in italics.

Cliff Lee (15-10, 7.75 K/9, 1.11 WHIP, 3.17 ERA)

Lee struggled at times last season and fell victim to the home run, putting up his highest HR/FB ratio (11.8%) since 2004. He did, however, crack the 200 strikeout plateau for the second consecutive season and put together a 1.46 ERA over his last seven starts. One of Lee's biggest issues last season was offensive run support, finishing 10th in the majors with 3.6 runs scored per game -  partially explaining why he collected just six wins.

 

James expects Lee to put up similar numbers from a year ago, except he projects a drop in home runs allowed and an increase in offensive run support to get him to 15 wins. The ERA and WHIP projections both seem reasonable.

 

Cole Hamels (14-10, 8.52 K/9, 1.12 WHIP, 3.23 ERA)

 

James believes Hamels will regress a tad this season and fall short of putting up numbers similar to 2012. The 3.23 ERA would be the highest for Hamels since 2009 and a his 4.06 K/BB ratio would be his lowest since 2010.

 

Roy Halladay (15-11, 7.4 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, 3.21 ERA)

 

Admittedly, Halladay is difficult to project moving forward. His velocity was down last season and he battled shoulder issues, so he struggled mightily - his 2.5 WAR was his lowest since 2000. The James model predicts he throws 230 innings this season but falls short of 200 strikeouts with his lowest K/9 since 2007. The 1.14 WHIP would be an improvement over last season's 1.22 and would fall closer to career average of 1.17.

 

I guess my biggest question is the projection of 230 innings pitched. Halladay tossed 233 innings in 2011 but also tossed eight complete games that season, I can't see that happening in '13.

 

Vance Worley (5-7, 7.25 K/9, 1.38 WHIP, 3.50 ERA)

 

James projects Worley to make just 20 starts in 2013 and his improvements over last season to be marginal, except a decent drop in WHIP from 1.51 to 1.38.

 

Kyle Kendrick (8-12, 4.75 K/9, 1.36 WHIP, 4.25 ERA)

 

Every group has to have a "loser" of some sort and of the five Phillies starters it appears James sees Kendrick as just that. Fresh off his best season in the majors, James sees Kendrick regressing to his career averages. Kendrick had a BABIP of .278 last season, but James projects a .291 mark which can explain his expectations for a higher ERA and less wins.

 

James also projects a drop in total strikeouts, from 116 last year to 95 in '13. This drop, coupled with the increased number of innings pitched (159.1 in '12 vs. 180 projected in '13) explains Kendrick's drop in wins.

 

If nothing else, I'm at least intrigued by James' projections. I can see the Lee projection as plausible, especially considering the poor run support he received last season.  I agree somewhat with Halladay's improvement, but I seriously doubt he will pitch 230 innings and toss eight complete games again.

 

What is your opinion on the James projection model? If you had to pick a number and disagree with it, what would it be?

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Projections for 2013 Phillies: Bill James

PBR - One of the joys of the offseason is the fanfare that surrounds the various projection releases. These numbers offer a first glimmer of how players and teams are expected to look in the upcoming season.

The Bill James projections were posted on Frangraphs a few days ago and that's what we are looking at in this post.

For those that don't know, Bill James is often considered the father of sabermetrics. He's created such statistics as Runs Created and the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. His projections are released yearly in the The Bill James Handbook.

Fans and writers that examine the various projection releases often contend the James system is overly optimistic and I tend to agree. His figures are routinely higher when compared to the CHONE, ZiPS and Marcels projection figures. The cause behind his often inflated numbers is correlated to league averages and relativity - he assumes everyone will be available for 162 games and the projections are based on what a player can do if given the opportunity for maximum playing time. The James system uses the same formula for projections, so everyone usually has higher than likely statistics.

Once the other projection packages are released we'll do a comparison and see what the consensus truly is. For now, I've included the James projections for key offensive players that are likely to return with the Phillies next season. Darin Ruf was not included in James' projections, so that's why you don't see him here.

I'll examine the pitchers in a later post.

 

The Review: The first thing I noticed with these projections was the expected return of Ryan Howard's bat. He missed a portion of last season recovering from his ankle injury, but he hit just .219 and put together an OBP of just .295. James expects Howard to return to his 2011 form.

Similarly, James sees Chase Utley putting up his best offensive numbers since 2010, including 122 appearances which would be the most he's played in since 2009.

I also was shocked to see such high expectations put on Domonic Brown. He's never hit more than five homers with the Phillies, yet James projects 17 next season with a significant increase in his slash line (.274/.347/.445 vs. .235/.316/.396).

James projects a bit of a drop for Carlos Ruiz, dropping his 2013 numbers closer to his career average. 

What do you think of with the projections?  Do you see Howard and Utley putting together such strong seasons? What about Brown and his projected breakout campaign or Ruiz and his slide back to career averages?

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Fans are not alone in questioning Marlins' latest moves

PBR - Fans and players are not the only people outraged at Jeffrey Loria and his latest fire sale, baseball executives are flustered too.

 

"Bad news for the future of baseball in South Florida, that's for sure," one American League executive told the Review Wednesday. "How he can justify that ballpark and use of shared funds is anyone's guess."

 

According to the collective bargaining agreement, organizations that receive revenue-sharing funds can not use the money to pay down debt and must specify how the funds are used to increase the product on the field.

 

Why is this important? Well, at some point Loria will have to answer for dumping significant salary and talent and not just to fans in Miami, but to other owners and executives in Major League Baseball.

 

"Slashing payroll exponentially after acquiring so much talent via free agency is going to agitate some people, for sure," the executive said.

 

Loria clearly is baseball's public enemy No. 1. He assumed fans in Miami would rush through the turnstiles of a lavish new ballpark and buy into a branding campaign that included a new logo and added on-field talent.

 

Boy, was he wrong.

 

Backed primarily by public funding, the $634 million ballpark was a flop at the gate, drawing an average attendance of 27,400 fans per game, at least 25 percent less than what the organization expected. The attendance total of 2.2 million was the lowest for a new ballpark in a full Major League season in 30 years. 

 

With a payroll whittled down to somewhere near $20 million, what becomes of baseball in South Florida? 

 

Ironically, the residents of Miami-Dade County are responsible for nearly $509-million related to the construction of Marlins Park.

Truthfully, the Marlins have never been a big draw; over the span of 20 seasons the club has exceeded the two-million mark in attendance just three times.

The lack of star-power and deceptiveness from Loria and Co. will only perpetuate a relationship between fans and an organization that already is floundering on life support.

Seemingly, one way or another, baseball fans in Miami will continue to pay.
 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter. 

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NL East News: Marlins send Reyes, Johnson to Toronto in blockbuster deal

PBR - The Marlins have done it again.

 

A year removed from an Opening Day payroll of nearly $100 million the club is again in the midst of a  fire sale and owner Jeffrey Loria isn't holding anything back.

 

According to several sources the Marlins have agreed to send starters Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, shortstop Jose Reyes, infielder/outfielder Emilio Bonifacio and catcher John Buck  to Toronto in what appears to be the largest trade in baseball history.

 

In return, the Marlins will receive shortstops Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria, major-league right-hander Henderson Alvarez, minor-league left-hander Justin Nicolino, center fielder Jacob Marisnick, catcher Jeff Mathis and minor league right-hander Anthony DeSclafani.

 

The deal was agreed upon on Tuesday night but has not been officially confirmed by either club.

 

Once finalized the Marlins' payroll will drop to near $16 million. Including an earlier trade of Heath Bell, the Marlins will have shed nearly $190 million in future salaries this offseason.

 

The moves all come less than a year after the club opened a new stadium in Little Havana. Including a parking structure, the stadium cost approximately $634 million to construct and was funded primarily by public tax-dollars.

 

"Alright, I''m pissed off, plain and simple," tweeted Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton after hearing of the deal.

 

Reyes and Buehrle were both brought to Miami last year as a means to make the club competitive and to increase fan interest, but the season quickly turned disastrous and the club finished last in the National League East at 69-93.

 

According to Baseball Reference, the team  ranked 12th in the National League in attendance.

 

The Marlins underwent similar salary dumps following the 1997 and 2004 seasons, but neither was as bold as the current sale.

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Harold Gould, former Negro Leagues player, dies at age 88

PBR - Harold Gould had every reason to be bitter about never having the opportunity to play in the major leagues. A light-skinned African American, the St. Louis Browns and Philadelphia Athletics showed interest in signing him in the mid-1940s until they realized he was black.

 

Gould, one of the last remaining Negro players with ties to the Philadelphia area, passed away on Friday morning at the age of 88.  

 

The right-hander won 19 games over two seasons with the Philadelphia Stars in the late 1940s, including an impressive rookie campaign with 14 victories. Strong and hard throwing, Gould opposed such Negro legends as Satchel Paige and Buck Leonard.

 

Gould's time with the Stars ended when he was drafted for military service and sent to Korea prior to the 1950 season.

 

"After Jackie Robinson started playing for the Dodgers you could see our attendance go down," Gould told the Philadelphia Daily News in 2010. "By 1950, it was all over."

 

Gould  was often involved in various ceremonial events with the Phillies honoring the Negro leagues and Robinson. Through his work around the club he developed relationships with shortstop Jimmy Rollins, first baseman Ryan Howard and former hitting coach Milt Thompson.

 

Born and raised in Gouldtown, NJ., Gould became a welder at a young age and perfected his craft in the off-season, working on the shipping docks in Camden. He opened his own welding business after he returned from his military stint in Korea and later taught his son the trade.

 

Gould spent the last 15 years around the race track, breeding and training thoroughbred horses.

 

"As a baseball player, he will not be remembered so much for the color of his skin but how he played the game and the content of his character," Harry Gould Jr told the South Jersey Times. "He’s been called bad things but it never ignited a fight or rage in him. But it ignited him to play better. People will remember my father as a low key, high-class quality man."

 

Gould was elected to the New Jersey Hall of Fame in 1994 and the South Jersey Hall of Fame in 2001. He was named one of Cumberland County’s “People of the Century” in 1999 and was named to the county’s Black Hall of Fame in 2009.

 

Services for Gould will be held at the Sray Webster Funeral in Bridgeton, NJ., on Friday evening and Saturday morning.

 

"He was a mentor and model to all, and he accepted you for who you were,” Gould Jr. said. "A lot of people looked up to him. He will sadly be missed and never forgotten."

 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Former batting-practice pitcher sues Phillies, Amaro

PBR - Ali Modami spent more than four years with the Phillies as a batting-practice pitcher, but now he's taking aim at the organization and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. in a lawsuit.

Modami claims Amaro sullied his reputation and his possibility of landing another job with a major league club by telling team officials that he stole and sold Phillies memorabilia, according to the suit.

The story was first reported in Tuesday's Philadelphia Daily News.

According to the suit, Modami is seeking a judgement in excess of $100,000 as compensation for being passed over by two organizations who originally demonstrated a strong interest in hiring him.

The suit states the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals both offered positive responses to Modami's inquiries about potential employment in late 2011, but both clubs backed off because Amaro told the teams' general managers that he was no longer with the Phillies because he was selling and stealing memorabilia. 

The suit also alleges Modami published negative things about the club on the Internet during his time with the Phillies.

According to the suit, Modami found out about Amaro's comments from Jayson Werth and Davey Lopes.  

The Phillies had no comment when approached by the Review on Tuesday morning.

"Neither the Phillies nor Mr. Amaro has yet been served with the complaint so we have not yet reviewed it and we are not in a position to comment," team spokeswoman Bonnie Clark told the Daily News. "In addition, it is the club's practice to not comment on pending litigation."

Modami was with the Phillies from May 2007 until Oct. 11, 2011. Before joining the club he spent two seasons playing in the independent leagues - in 62 career games he hit .255 with one homer and 25 RBIs.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Center field sits at the top of Amaro's off-season agenda

PBR - General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has been pondering his off-season plans for more than a month and finding a center fielder sits at the top of his to-do list.

Unlike year's past though don't expect a major move prior to Thanksgiving as Amaro promises patience before writing that first multimillion-dollar check. 

"I don't see us doing anything very quick, I really don't," Amaro told FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. "I don't know how this is all going to play out. There are a lot of moving parts for us, different pieces of the puzzle."

Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. likely will have the corner outfield positions secured three and a half months from now when spring training opens in Clearwater, but the rest of the outfield is a question mark.

"Right now, I think center field is a position that is going to have to be addressed externally," Amaro said last week. 

Josh Hamilton highlights the current crop of free agent center fielders. However, his asking price of seven years for $175-million is likely far too rich for the Phillies unless he agrees to a back-loaded contract. The next tier of free agent center fielders includes Michael Bourn, Cody Ross, Shane Victorino, and B.J Upton. 

 

Bourn is believed to be expecting somewhere near $100-million, pushing him to the absolute threshold the Phillies likely want to pay. Plus, he hits left-handed and the Phillies already are too left-heavy, making him a less than likely candidate. 

That leaves Ross, Victorino, and Upton.

Ross missed a month of the season last year with a broken foot and still put up decent numbers with Boston, hitting .267 with 22 homers and 81 RBIs. The Red Sox are expected to make a hard run at retaining Ross though, plus the majority of his time the last two season's has been at the corner outfield positions.

Victorino is a known commodity, but the Phillies dealt him away last season partially because he underperformed. He finished the year with career lows in batting average (.255), on-base percentage (.321), and slugging percentage (.383). Since the Phillies want to change their offensive approach it's unlikely the club makes a significant run at Victorino, but if the market dries up and Amaro finds himself without a dance partner he may be able to land Victorino on the cheap.

As for Upton, he may be the most dynamic player of the second-tier. The 28-year-old hits from the right side and would break up the middle of the Phillies lineup. He hit .246 last year with 28 homers and 78 RBIs, also stealing 31 bases. The knock on him though is strikeouts - he's whiffed at least 160 times over each of the last three seasons. 

Over the coming days I'll break down each player individually and provide analysis as to why Amaro and Co. should / should not make an offer.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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