Delmon Young says he is ready for a fresh start with Phillies

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Delmon Young never has been one to shy away from conflict but after having bounced around with three teams over the span of six years he admits the time for change is now.

"You live and learn, but I know I have to put myself in better situations," Young said on Thursday. "Now, it's just about getting that red hat into the World Series."

The 27-year-old outfielder agreed to a one-year deal with the Phillies for $750,000. The deal can reach $3.5 million with roster and performance incentives. 

A prized prospect out of high school, Young was selected with the No. 1 pick in the 2003 Amateur Draft by the Tampa Bay Rays but  has bounced around since, making stops in Minnesota and Detroit.

He has battled anger issues and been suspended three times, the most recent coming last April following an arrest in New York for aggravated assault. Young pleaded guilty to the charge in November and was ordered by Major League Baseball to complete anger management and alcohol counseling. He also was required to complete 10 days of community service which he finished before coming to Philadelphia for his physical earlier this week.

"I made a change last year after the incident," Young said. "It made me wake up. I've had a full offseason to get healthy and a full offseason to reflect on life and having good people around me. Being a good person, everything good can still happen." 

Young hit .267 with 27 doubles, 18 home runs and 74 RBIs in 151 games last season with the Tigers. He also collected the American League Championship MVP award with a stellar postseason performance. His best season came while he was with the Twins in 2010, hitting .298 with 21 home runs and 112 RBIs.

Young made nearly $7 million with Detroit last season, so he knows his lack of suitors stems from his sideshow antics on and off the field.

"I've done some things where there is a reason for it," Young said. "If I went out there and was an All-Star six years in a row and healthy and a model citizen, that wouldn't have happened. That's where I'm looking to make a change."

Ruben Amaro Jr. said he spoke to several people before signing Young. 

"The conclusion we came up with is he made a mistake and has learned from it," Amaro said. "We want good character guys in the clubhouse and we believe he is one. He's motivated and has the tools to do what we need him to do."

Young is recovering from microfracture surgery on his right ankle so his status for Opening Day is questionable, but Amaro believes he has the potential to be the Phillies' right fielder when healthy. The two major concerns though are his defense and patience at the plate. 

"Sure, there is some risk here, but we think it's a low-risk, high-reward move because the guy can hit," Amaro said.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.   

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Pennsylvania's greatest ballplayer Stan Musial dies at 92

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Stan Musial, one of baseball's most prodigious hitters and arguably the best player ever to come from Pennsylvania, died Saturday at his home in Missouri. He was 92.

Recognized as Stan the Man, Musial won seven batting titles, hit 475 home runs and collected 3,630 hits. He also won three Most Valuable Player awards and played on three World Series championship teams.

Musial was born on Nov.. 21, 1920, in Donora, Pa., a steel town approximately 30 miles south of Pittsburgh. He began his career as a pitcher in the Cardinals' farm system before being converted to an outfielder and made his major league debut in September 1941.

Musial joined the Navy following the 1944 season and spent a portion of his service working at the Philadelphia Navy Yard as a ship repairman. He was honorably discharged in March 1946.

Musial retired following the 1963 season having played in 24 All-Star Games, a mark shared only by Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. In 417 games against the Phillies he hit .337 with 54 home runs and 261 RBIs.

Perhaps the only thing that surpassed Musial's talent was his zest for the game and the city of St. Louis.

“Maybe one reason I’m so cheerful is that for more than 20 years I’ve had an unbeatable combination going for me — getting paid, often a lot, to do the thing I love the most,” he told Sports Illustrated in 1963.

Musial was elected to the Hall of Fame in in his first year of eligibility in 1969. 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.    

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Phillies, Bastardo avoid arbitration

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Left-hander Antonio Bastardo agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.4 million with the Phillies on Friday to avoid arbitration.

The 27-year-old is expected to be a vital part of the bullpen this season. In 65 games last year he posted a 2-5 record with one save, a 4.33 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 52.0 innings while holding the opposition to a .207 batting average. The deal includes bonuses and represents a $895,000 raise for the reliever.

Bastardo had stretches last season where he was dominant, but he also dealt with arm fatigue and mechanical issues. He posted a 2.64 in his 2011 rookie season.

Bastardo was the last remaining arbitration-eligible player for the Phillies this offseason. 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies' Prospect Scouting Report: Meet Carlos Tocci

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Carlos Tocci received one of the richest bonuses for an international amateur in Phillies history, signing for $759,000 in 2011. 

A plus-plus runner with a strong knowledge of the game, Tocci held his own last season as a 16-year-old in his professional debut in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. He excelled in center field and showcased an above average arm.

Standing 6-2 and weighing just 160 pounds he has a slender frame and does not project as much of a power threat, but his other tools compensate for his value. He has a knack for the strike zone and uses the entire field.

"He has the tools to be a speedster, for sure," said one rival National League scout. "I saw him a few times last year and he is extremely smooth and athletics, just don't expect him to hit the long ball because the one thing he lacks is strength and power."

Tocci likely will remain in extended spring training and be assigned to Class A Short-Season Williamsport in June. He currently is ranked as the 10th best prospect in the Phillies' organization by Baseball America.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.   

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Rollins selected to play for Team USA in World Baseball Classic

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Jimmy Rollins once again will lend his skills to Team USA for the World Baseball Classic. 

The shortstop was named to the United States' provisional roster on Thursday. The 34-year-old participated in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and was the only player from the United States to be named to the All-Tournament Team.

"It was a blast, there wasn't one moment I would take back," Rollins said following the last tournament.

The United States has never reached the finals, losing in the second-round in 2006 and in the semi-finals at Dodger Stadium in 2009. 

"I'm excited about this team we put together and I'm pleased that the players seem to be equally excited," U.S. manager Joe Torre said in a statement. "That's important that these guys have the passion to represent USA and hopefully we'll do good things."

The Americans open the Classic on March 8 in Phoenix against Mexico. Canada and Italy are the other two teams in Pool D.

Six other Phillies will join Rollins in the Classic, including three with Team Canada: right-hander Phillippe Aumont, outfielder Tyson Gillies and utility player Pete Orr. 

"Honored to be selected for @baseballcanada in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. Absolutely can't wait!" Gillies tweeted.

Elsewhere, left-hander Cesar Jimenez will play for Venezuela, second baseman Lucas Rojo was selected by Brazil and catcher/infielder Tim Kennelly was picked for Australia.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Babe Ruth: "Ty Cobb's a prick" - The 1927 Philadelphia Athletics

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

MLB Network's Bleacher Features series begins tonight with "Cobb", a 1994 biopic about Hall of Famer Ty Cobb. 

A member of the Detroit Tigers for 22 seasons, baseball people often overlook the fact Cobb spent his final two major league seasons with Connie Mack and the Philadelphia Athletics.

Forced to retire following allegations of game-fixing, Cobb retreated to his home in Augusta, Georgia following the 1926 season. After a set of hearings with Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis he was cleared of any wrong doing and signed with the Athletics on February 8, 1927 for somewhere between $50,000 and $85,000.    

"If I had the ability, perhaps I could tell you this in better words," Cobb told a group of Philadelphia sportswriters during an annual offseason banquet. "I only want to say that I am happy beyond words to tell you that I will play next season for the Athletics."

Cobb and Mack had been bitter rivals on the field for more than two decades, but now the two coexisted on a club that some writers pegged as the best in the American League.

Once hated by Athletics' fans Cobb quickly became a favorite, using his tough and gritty style of play to lead the team in hits and stolen bases. He finished only behind Al Simmons on the club in OPS (.921), OPS+ (134) and RBIs (93) - he also ranked 10th in the American League in WAR (4.0).

The Athletics finished the '27 season with a solid 91-63 mark, but were outclassed by the New York Yankees by 19 games. The fact that the Yankees ran away with the pennant by mid-August hindered attendance and forced Mack to cut payroll, so Cobb was let go two weeks prior to the end of the regular season.

Cobb returned to the Athletics in 1928 but quickly became disinterested in his role as a reserve. The 42-year-old still had an impeccable eye, but his legs were all but gone and Mack had more athletic and younger alternatives for the outfield in Bing Miller and Mule Haas.

Crotchety as ever, Cobb began teasing the younger teammates and alienated himself from the rest of the club. On the road he dined by himself and spent much of his free time in the hotel room. His final at-bat came on September 11, 1928 - a pinch-hit lineout to shortstop in the ninth inning of a 5-3 loss to the Yankees in New York.

Cobb was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1936 and remains one of the game's most intriguing historical figures.

"Sure, Cobb's a prick, but God Almighty, how that old man can still hit and run," said Babe Ruth.

(Quotes from this article were obtained from the stellar work of Bill Kashatus and his well-researched book Connie Mack's '29 Triumph. The book is one the best baseball texts available and arguably the best ever written about the Philadelphia Athletics. Check it out on Amazon.com.)

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies' prospects Gillies and Aumont to play for Team Canada

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Team Canada will have some Philadelphia flavor when the World Baseball Classic begins in March.

Phillies' prospects Phillipe Aumont and Tyson Gillies both were named to Canada's 23-man provisional roster on Saturday afternoon during an event at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Aumont is expected to compete for a bullpen spot with the Phillies this spring. The 24-year-old spent the majority of last season with Lehigh Valley before being called up to Philadelphia in late August. He finished his first big league season with a 3.68 ERA over 18 appearances. 

Gillies, 24, spent the majority of last season with Double-A Reading, hitting .299 with four home runs and 24 RBIs. The speedy outfielder is expected to open the season with Reading.

Peter Orr also is on Team Canada's roster. Orr signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in November after a 315/.327/.444 slash over 57 plate appearances with the big league club last year.

The complete Team Canada World Baseball Classic roster can be found here. 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies sign Rodrigo Lopez to minor league deal

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

The Phillies have signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, according to multiple sources.

Lopez spent last season with the Chicago Cubs, pitching primarily with their Triple-A affliate in Iowa. The 37-year-old appeared in 18 games, finishing 2-5 with a 5.28 ERA - of the 18 contests, he started 15.

The right-hander has a career 4.82 ERA  over 11 major league seasons with six different teams, including the Phillies.

Lopez spent a portion of the 2009 season with the Phillies, tossing 30 innings over seven games resulting in a 5.70 ERA.

Lopez will receive $1 million if he makes the big league club.  

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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MLB to begin random HGH testing in 2013

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association have agreed to add random in-season human growth hormone blood testing

“This agreement addresses critical drug issues and symbolizes Major League Baseball’s continued vigilance against synthetic human growth hormone, testosterone and other performance-enhancing substances," said MLB Commissioner Bud Selig. "I am proud that our system allows us to adapt to the many evolving issues associated with the science and technology of drug testing. We will continue to do everything we can to maintain a leadership stature in anti-doping efforts in the years ahead.”

Players Association Executive Director Michael Weiner said players are fine with testing as long as it is done fairly. 

“Players want a program that is tough, scientifically accurate, backed by the latest proven scientific methods, and fair; I believe these changes firmly support the players’ desires while protecting their legal rights,” Weiner said

Major League Baseball's current collective bargaining agreement allows for HGH testing during the offseason and spring training, but not once rhe regular season begins.  

Major League Baseball has been randomly testing its minor league players for HGH since July 2010 and is now the only major North American sport to blood test unionized players.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/01/10/4004079/report-mlb-to-begin-random-hgh.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/01/10/4004079/report-mlb-to-begin-random-hgh.html#storylink=cp

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Hamels OK after experiencing shoulder soreness

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. revealed that Cole Hamels dealt with shoulder soreness at the end of last season and again during an offseason throwing program. 

However, Amaro assured Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com that Hamels is fine and the soreness was nothing out of the ordinary.

"I’d be concerned if this was an issue, but we don’t view this as an issue at all," Amaro said. "We shut him down for a couple of weeks, but he’s fine now. He was being proactive more than anything else, which is good. We backed him off and slowed him down, but he’s back throwing now and doing fine. He’s had no complaints."

According to the report, Hamels contacted head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan in October and noted the soreness. Amaro said the issue was not serious enough to warrant an examination.

The 29-year-old spent two-weeks on the disabled list in August of 2011 with shoulder inflammation and had surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow prior to the 2012 season.

Hamels signed a six-year, $144 million contract with the Phillies last July. 
 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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West Chester ranked No. 1 in Collegiate Baseball Preseason Poll

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Collegiate Baseball Newspaper announced today West Chester University will enter the 2013 campaign as the No. 1 team in the country. The accolade marks the first time the Rams have ever received preseason No. 1 honors in any poll.

West Chester (46-10) defeated Delta State last year to win the NCAA Division II title, becoming the first team from the state of Pennsylvania to win an NCAA baseball championship at any level.

The Rams lost All-American second baseman Joe Wendle in last June's amateur draft but return two solid upperclassman pitchers in Joe Gunkel and Fred Breidenbach. 

Senior designated hitter Jordan Wlodarczyk was also recognized by the the Collegiate Baseball Newspaper with preseason All-American honors.

West Chester opens the season Feb. 8 with a non-league contest at Lander in Greenwood, S.C. and open the home portion of the schedule on Feb. 23 with a doubleheader against College of Saint Rose.

The entire NCAA Division II poll can be found here. 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Hall of Fame tosses a shutout: no one elected

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

For the first time in 17 years the the Baseball Writers' Association of America decided not to elect a player to the Hall of Fame.

The vote appears to be a referendum on the steroid era as Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, the two players most closely linked to performance-enhancing drugs, received 37.6% and 36.2% of the vote respectively. 

“The standards for earning election to the Hall of Fame have been very high ever since the rules were created in 1936," said Hall of Fame president Jeff Idelson. "We realize the challenges voters are faced with in this era. The Hall of Fame has always entrusted the exclusive voting privilege to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”

Craig Biggio received the most votes on the ballot with 388 - 39 shy of the 427 needed for enshrinement. 

In total, 569 ballots were cast marking this electorate the third largest since voting began in 1936. 

The other BBWAA elections without a winner were in 1945, 1946, 1950, 1958, 1960 and 1971.

Full voting results can be found here.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Opinion: Gordon's Hall of Fame Ballot

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

First, let me say I am not a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. I have covered the sport for more than a decade for various newspapers and publications, but my primary employer is not a media outlet so I fail to meet the admission requirements. 

The only difference between members of the BBWAA and myself is who signs our paychecks.

My Hall of Fame selections are hypothetical; no one invited my opinion, but here it is. Three players, all worthy in their own way: Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez and Craig Biggio.  

The ballot this year is stocked with worthy candidates, but it also is brimming with stories of deceit. Yes, Barry Bonds holds the all-time home run record, but how many of his 762 blasts were hit after he began using performance-enhancing drugs? I do not know and neither do you and that is what makes this ballot so convoluted.    

When we look back years from now it would not be a surprise to see more than 10 players from the current crop enshrined in Cooperstown, but I can not bring myself right now to support players those players that clearly are linked to cheating.

If Bonds and Roger Clemens gain entry than how can we still deny Pete Rose and Joe Jackson? Sorry, but the argument that Bonds and Clemens were Hall of Fame caliber players before taking PED's just is not good enough. Rose and Jackson were Hall of Fame material before they fell to scandal, yet neither has a plaque in Cooperstown.

Bonds and Clemens, along with several other players on the ballot, cheated. In my mind, their potential enshrinement diminishes the intrinsic value of the Hall of Fame. I am not implying the BBWAA act as judge and jury, but as a voting body comprised of competent journalists it should have internally discussed the steroid issue and the proper handling of votes for such players years ago. Instead, we sit teetering on a ledge that may significantly alter how we view the Hall of Fame.

Speaking with other writers, it appears the individualistic way to demonstrate frustration with the situation is  to cast a blank ballot. Last year 573 ballots were returned to the Hall of Fame - nine were blank. More than a dozen blank ballots are expected this year.

"It's a form of protest because we just don't know who was using what," said one BBWAA writer. "It may sound foolish, but it says something by not saying nothing at all."

As for my votes, I examined the career figures for each player and compared their rank in various statistical categories to the best at their respective positions. Trammell and Biggio clearly rank among the best in the past 50 years at their positions and Martinez defined the role of the designated hitter. Also, all three are well respected by writers and peers - each the quintessential definition of a professional.

Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith, Don Mattingly and Tim Raines were all on my radar but fell short for various reasons. All five were solid players, but none were extraordinary or defined a generation at a specific position.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies Spring Training tickets on sale Thursday

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Individual tickets for Spring Training games at Bright House Field will go on sale Thursday at 9 a.m., according to a release from the Phillies.

The home schedule includes 17 games, including two against the New York Yankees and an exhibition against the Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic team. 

The schedule opens on February 23 with the Phillies hosting the Houston Astros. The Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves will also visit Bright House Field, as well as the Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals.

The Spring Training schedule concludes with an On-Deck Series at Citizens Bank Park on March 29 and 30 against the Blue Jays.

This spring marks the 67th year the Phillies will train in Clearwater.

Fans can purchase tickets at http://www.phillies.com/spring or by calling 215-463-1000. The entire Spring Training schedule can be found here.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Report: Phillies among clubs interested in Freddy Sanchez

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Freddy Sanchez has not had a major league at bat in nearly 19 months, but a report released Monday indicates the former batting champ is drawing interest from more than a dozen clubs.  

A source close to Sanchez told the Review late Monday night the Phillies are "one of several clubs" to request medical records.

Sanchez, 35, underwent surgery last July to remove a portion of a disk in his back. A few months earlier he underwent surgery on his left shoulder.

The three-time All-Star is a career .297 hitter. He won the National League batting title in 2006 while with the Pirates, hitting .344. 

Sanchez is a second baseman, but he also has experience at shortstop and third base. He would serve simply as depth if he were to sign with the Phillies.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Amaro says Phillies "likely going with what we've got"

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Ruben Amaro Jr. is content with the current makeup of the Phillies roster, according to an article from the Inquirer's Matt Gelb. 

"We're likely going with what we've got," Ruben Amaro Jr. told Gelb.

This means the corner outfield positions will either be filled internally or platooned by some combination of John Mayberry Jr., Darin Ruf, Laynce Nix and Domonic Brown.

Combined, the four have a career slash of .244/.298/.482.

As reported previously, the Phillies remain about $7 million under the $178 million luxury tax threshold. The extra cash may come in handy if Amaro decides to make a move at some point during the regular season.

Trading for an outfielder remains an option, but the Phillies lack the trade chips to make a significant deal.

"If there is a player that is better who we feel could help us now, we'll utilize our resources to get him," Amaro told Gelb. "If there isn't, then we may be better served to hold on a see what we could do during the year."

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Chase Utley and Craig Biggio | Another Hall of Fame debate

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

The culmination of two decades worth of bruises and cuts may finally come this week for Craig Biggio via a phone call from the Hall of Fame.

He is not the best player on this year's ballot, but his stellar career numbers coupled with the fact he has no known ties to performance-enhancing drugs give him an excellent chance of being elected. 

Fast forward a few years from now and we may be having a similar conversation about Phillies second baseman Chase Utley. 

Biggio played in 2,850 games while Utley has appeared in just 1,192, so looking purely at career totals does not make much sense. What does make sense is looking at the figures each put up during the peak of their career, conceding the notion that Utley's best days are behind him.

Baseball-Reference uses a statistic called WAR7 that sums the seven best WAR seasons for a player, so looking at the graph to the right you can see Utley has an advantage. Biggio carries  a significant advantage in WAR, but that partly is because he has a ten year advantage in playing time compared to Utley.

JAWS is a newer metric, measuring Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging WAR and WAR7 together. Again, Utley falls short but that simply is because of Biggio's advantage in games played.

Given that Utley has played just ten seasons, here is a comparison of his numbers to Biggio's first decade in the majors:

 

The figures indicate it is the numbers Biggio put up on the backend of his career that truly give him a boost towards the Hall of Fame. 

Due in part to injuries, Utley likely will not have a similar resurgence at the end of his career.

For one final comparison, here is how the two compare averaging their career totals over a traditional 162 game season:

Realistically, Utley needs another three or four productive seasons to show he belongs in Cooperstown.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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2013 Projections indicate a 90-win season for Phillies

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Yesterday, I looked at the ZiPS and Bill James projection models and used the two packages to forecast the number of runs the Phillies will score this season.

Here, I'm using the pitching projections from the same two models to estimate the number of runs the Phillies will allow.  

For simplicity I looked specifically at ERA and found the averages for the starting rotation and the bullpen. I included 12 pitchers - five starters and seven relievers. The projected ERA's can be seen in the chart to the right. One thing to note, Aumont and De Fratus were not included in the Bill James projection model so I included ERA estimates of 4.00 for each.

Using the Bill James model the starting rotation has an estimated ERA of 3.69 while the relievers sit at 3.40. Using ZiPS the starters have a 3.72 projected ERA while relievers sit at 3.76. 

Formula: [SP projected ERA * .66] + [RP projected ERA * 33]

The multipliers are included based on the assumption starters will average six innings per start.

Projected Runs Allowed via ZiPS: [3.72 * .66] + [3.76 * .33] = 3.69

Projected Runs Allowed via Bill James model: [3.69 * .66] + [3.40 * 33] = 3.56

With projected ERA's we can solve to find runs scored by the following: [ERA / 9] * IP]. I estimated 1458 innings pitched by multiplying nine innings by 162 games played. For reference, the Phillies played 1451.3 innings last season.

ZiPS runs allowed projection: 597 | Bill James runs allowed projection: 577.

To compensate for defense I've added 70 runs to the estimated runs allowed total. Last year the defense committed 101 errors and surrendered 62 unearned runs and I believe a slight increase is plausible considering Michael Young's subpar defensive skills at third base. 

Including defensive expectations, the ZiPS runs allowed projection is 667 and the Bill James projection is 647. 

As I did with the offensive projections and OPS, I'll average the runs allowed projections and settle with 657. 

To recap, the models project the Phillies to score 746 runs while surrendering 657 - we can now enter these figures into the Pythagorean Theorem to project the Phillies' winning percentage.

Pyth W%: [(746)^1.81]/[(746)^1.81 + (657)^1.81] = .557

Over a 162 game season a .557 winning percentage works out to a 90-72 record. 

How much stock do you put into the ZiPS and Bill James projections? 

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies and Marlins have not discussed Giancarlo Stanton

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Rumors continue to swirl around Giancarlo Stanton's future in Miami and some reports list the Phillies as a possible landing spot. 

However, sources told the Review Sunday the two clubs have not spoken about a possible deal.

"The Marlins are only going to move him if they get a substantial package in return, and I'm talking mega-prospects and players that are big league ready," said one NL East baseball official. "That hasn't happened yet."

Stanton would be an excellent fit for the Phillies and would solve the platoon situation in right field, but it's doubtful the club has enough in the form of premier prospects to make a legitimate play on the 23-year-old. In addition, the Phillies likely would have to overpay to entice the Marlins and general manager Michael Hill to deal Stanton within the division

Stanton has hit 71 home runs over the past two seasons and has a career slash of . 270/.350/.553. He hit 37 homers last year and collected 86 RBIs.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Phillies 2013 Projections: Models forecast Phils to score 746 runs

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

It rarely is a good idea to rely entirely on one projection system when several exist, so over the next few weeks I'll be comparing the various models as they relate to the Phillies and offering analysis. 

Today, I'm looking specifically at OPS in the 2013 ZiPS and Bill James projection models.

Why OPS? 

OPS estimates total offensive production (except base running) and can be used as a factor in estimating total team runs scored. True, most projection models include individual runs scored but the figures are traditionally based on individual forecasts and not in the context of the team, so simply adding the runs scored is often a baseless exercise.

Projected Runs Scored = (2*OPS) - 743 | For a complete explanation of this formula, click here.

Admittedly, some corners have been cut. First, rather than find an absolute team OPS based on the culmination of individual statistics I've averaged each individual OPS projection to find a team average. Secondly, playing time has not been taken into consideration. This means Domonic Brown's OPS is weighted the same as John Mayberry's, yet their playing time may differ significantly.

The average Phillies' OPS is .734 via the ZiPS model and .755 via the Bill James model, so using the Projected Runs Scored formula ZiPS predicts the Phillies to score 725 runs while the Bill James model forecasts 767.

Averaged together, the ZiPS and Bill James models project the Phillies to score 746 runs.  For reference, the National League average of team runs scored in 2012 was 683 (see chart below).

So we now have a runs scored estimate for the Phillies in 2013. Tomorrow, I'll use the ZiPS and Bill James models to find a runs allowed estimate. Combined, we can determine a win-loss prediction using these two projection models.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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Victorino says he wanted to return to Phillies

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

Shane Victorino admitted Friday he wishes he were still playing in Philadelphia.

The outfielder was in town celebrating the one-year anniversary of the Shane Victorino Nicetown Boys and Girls Club - a building that he and his wife helped renovate with a $900,000 donation. 

Flanked by children, Victorino urged those in attendance to listen to their parents and to study for school.  When asked of where he plays now he couldn't help but grin. 

"I play for Boston, now," Victorino said. 

The 32-year-old was traded by the Phillies to the Dodgers at last year's trade deadline. In December he signed a three-year deal with the Red Sox for $39 million.

"I wanted to come back," he said, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "We kept in touch and I informed them of what was going on and the opportunities I was getting. We gave them every last shot to give me an opportunity to come back. This is the place I wanted to be. But unfortunately it didn't work out." 

Victorino struggled mightily last season, amassing career low figures in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging.

In total, he spent eight seasons in Philadelphia and played a vital role in the club clinching the 2008 World Series.

Patrick Gordon is managing editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Follow him on Twitter @Philabaseball or e-mail him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com

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Around the NL East: Braves search for a left fielder continues

By EAN DUNN | Contributor
@EanDunn

(Editor's note: In the past I've invited various writers to provide insightful analysis on the team they routinely cover. The Review continues that tradition today with a contribution from Ean Dunn, a talented young writer who covers the Atlanta Braves for chatsports.com.)

Who’s Gone:

CF Michael Bourn | Bourn became a free agent following the 2012 campaign, leaving a void at the top of the Braves’ lineup and in center field. The 30-year-old earned his second All-Star selection and some NL MVP votes last season, but his strikeouts increased and his batting average dipped to its lowest point since 2009.  Today, he remains on the free agent market with an asking price of $80 million.

3B Chipper Jones | Injuries were an issue for the 40-year-old, forcing him to average just 111 games played over the past three seasons. The Braves won’t be losing much in productivity, but they will  be losing a force in the clubhouse and a certain Hall of Famer.

SP Tommy Hanson | A drop in velocity coupled with shoulder issues and depth in starting pitching allowed general manager Frank Wren to ship Hanson to the Angels. The right-hander went 45-32 with a 3.61 ERA in four seasons with the Braves. A 5.69 ERA following the All-Star break signaled the beginning of the end for the 26-year-old in Atlanta. 

New Faces:

CF BJ Upton. | Upton was the Braves top pick to replace the departed Bourn, agreeing to a five-year  deal worth $72.25 million. Upton takes Bourn’s spot in center and will hit somewhere in the middle of the order. The 28-year-old hit 28 home runs last year, a career high. He's also a speedster, swiping 31 bases last season.

RP Jordan Walden. Walden is a nice addition to the Braves bullpen and arrived via the trade that sent Hanson to the Angels. He’s young and brings a fastball with movement that tops out in the high-90s. He was the Angels' primary closer in 2011 but battled shoulder issues throughout much of last season and became expendable when the Halos signed reliever Ryan Madson. 

Remaining Needs:

Left fielder | The free agent market is bare so the Braves may be forced to use Martin Prado in left and rely on Juan Francisco and Ramiro Pena at third. The club also has been linked to the Rockies and outfielder Dexter Fowler.

- Ean Dunn covers the Atlanta Braves for chatsports.com. Follow him on Twitter @EanDunn. 

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More Projections: An early look at the Phillies' April schedule

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

The Phillies' April 1 regular-season opener in Atlanta will be carried nationally by ESPN2 as part of an Opening Night prime-time doubleheader. Following the two-game set the Phillies return home and open at Citizens Bank Park against Kansas City. 

In total, the Phillies have 26 games in April against eight different opponents. Combined, those clubs finished with a .495 winning percentage last season (641-655). 

With all the hoopla surrounding the release of the ZiPS and Bill James projections, I figure let's have some fun and forecast the Phillies' record over the first month of the season. We know the opponents and their winning percentages, so we can plug everything into Bill James' log5 prediction formula. 

For those unfamiliar, James introduced the log5 concept in his 1981 Baseball Abstract. Boiled down, log5 answers the question, "how often should team A be expected to beat team B?"

The log5 formula: (A - (A*B)) / ((A+B) - (2*A*B)) A = Team A Winning Percentage, B = Team B Winning Percentage. 

We know the Phillies finished last season at .500 and the eight opponents finished at .495, so our formula reads: (.500 - (.500*.495)) / ((.500+.495) - (2*.500*.495). The result is .506, meaning the the Phillies are projected to carry a .506 winning percentage out of next April - essentially a 13-13 mark.

But let's not stop there. 

To account for home field advantage you add or subtract .042 from the projected winning percentage (the number we just found via the equation.) We know 14 of the 26 games are at home, so the Phillies projected winning percentage at home jumps to .548 while the projected winning percentage on the road falls to .464.

A .548 winning percentage in 14 games equals 7.7 wins (.548 * 14), so at Citizens Bank Park we can forecast the Phillies to go 8-6. On the road, the .464 winning percentage in 12 games equals 5.6 wins, so rounded we can expect the club to go 6-6.

Combined, we can forecast the Phillies to go 14-12 in April.  

Just a little insight as we sit nearly three months away from Opening Day.

- Patrick Gordon is managing editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Follow him on Twitter @Philabaseball or e-mail him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com

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