Blog - Philadelphia Baseball Review

Phillies, Hamels agree to one-year deal

2012-01-17T13:59:00.000-05:00

PBR - The Phillies and Cole Hamels agreed on a one-year deal worth $15 million and avoided arbitration.

Hamels went 14-9 last season with a 2.79 ERA in 32 games last season.

The one-year deal allows Hamels and the club the luxury of discussing a long-term contract. Hamels is eligible for free agency following the 2012 season.

The left-hander made $9.5 million last season in the final year of a three-year contract.

The club also signed Wilson Valdez for $930,000.

Tuesday was the final day for players to sign before arbitration numbers are exchanged.

Roto Challenge: Michael Pineda, SP, NYY

2012-01-11T22:53:00.002-05:00

PBR - The Review will publicly manage a club this season in CDM's Diamond Roto Challenge.

For those unfamiliar with CDM's Roto Challenge, participants compile a roster of 28 players and a taxi squad of 12 players. All players are given a salary and participants must build a club within the confines of $30,000,000. There is no draft, participants simply select the players they want.

I will be building the Review's roster over the next few weeks and plan to blog about each selection. Salaries can be found here. My selections will be based on projected statistics, relative value compared to other positional players, and sabermetric analysis.

Selection: Michael Pineda

SP, NYY, $890,000

Pineda performed magnificently during the first half of the 2011 season but sputtered down the stretch. He finished with a 3.74 ERA to go along with an impressive 1.10 WHIP. He throws a 95-mph fastball and is projected to increase his DOM (SO per 9) from 9.10 to 9.40 ... for perspective, a DOM over 6 is considered excellent.

Pineda's Fantasy Performance Indicator (FPI) is projected at 1.80 for 2012, making him an excellent value at $890,000. In comparison, Dan Hudson (projected FPI 1.50) and Ryan Dempster (projected FPI 1.06) are the other two SP's priced at $890,000.

FPI is calculated by using linear weights. Every inning pitched is valued at 4.5, hits at -2.5, home runs at -6, wins at 3, losses at -3 and walks at 1. After adding the weights the formula is (IP-H-HR+W-L-BB)/actual IP). Pitchers with FPI's of 1.60 to 1.80 are considered fantasy stars, 1.80 to 2.00 super stars and above 2.00 fantasy studs.

Playing in Seattle, Pineda remains a relative unknown. To succeed in a contest like this you have to seek under-valued talent and I think we have that here. The starting lineup consists of six SP's, so the money saved on a bargain like Pineda can go toward an ace such as Roy Halladay or Justin Verlander, each costing around $1,600,000.

This post was created before Pineda was dealt to the Yankees. I believe the move will help improve his win total, but also push his ERA up a bit as Yankee Stadium is more hitter friendly than Safeco Field.

Report: Madson signs with the Reds

2012-01-10T23:34:00.009-05:00

PBR - Ryan Madson has signed a one-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds, according to various reports.

Terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed.

Madson went 4-2 last season with the Phillies and notched 32 saves. In nine seasons with the Phils the 31-year-old compiled a 3.59 career ERA and 67% save conversion rate.

The Phillies originally had an interest in re-signing Madson to a four-year deal worth $44 million, but ownership axed the offer and the club changed directions and signed Jonathan Papelbon.

Statistically, last season was the best of Madson's career as he finished with a WAR of 2.2 and a career best 3.1 HR/FB.

Moving to Great American Ballpark, I expect his HR/FB number to trend upwards toward his career average of 7.1, especially considering how favorable GAB is to hitters (107 park factor in 2011). However, if he stays healthy (and if Scott Boras doesn't over-value him) he should be able to sign a lucrative long-term deal after the 2012 season.

Phillies not yet thinking long term with Hamels

2012-01-10T23:16:00.001-05:00

PBR - Assistant general manager Scott Proefrock appeared on Comcast SportsNet on Tuesday night and said the Phillies are focused on negotiating a one-year deal with left-hander Cole Hamels.

"We've had discussions with Cole," Profrock said. "Right now we are focused on a one-year deal. There is plenty of time down the road, that's all I'll say."

Hamels is eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. He's expected to make somewhere near $14 million through arbitration next month.

The 28-year-old finished 14-9 last season with a career best 2.79 ERA.

Phillies linked to free-agent Kerry Wood

2012-01-09T21:17:00.000-05:00

PBR - Sources confirmed Monday that the Phillies have reached out to free-agent Kerry Wood.

The 34-year-old reliever is believed to be looking for a one-year contract in the neighborhood of $4 million.

The Phillies are believed to be one of several clubs interested in the right-hander, along with Anaheim and Detroit. Wood posted a 3.35 ERA while with the Cubs last season and has a 10.34 strikeout ratio over his 13-year career.

The Cubs were reportedly close to re-signing Wood last week, but talks hit a snag when the two sides discussed an increase over the $1.5 million Wood made last season.

Is Jimmy Rollins on pace for the Hall of Fame?

2012-01-03T21:58:00.004-05:00

PBR - Jimmy Rollins was quoted last month saying his chances of reaching the Hall of Fame may increase if he stays with one club throughout his career.

Statistically, he's on the outside looking in, but he's closer than you may think.

Barry Larkin, widely believed to be a favorite to gain induction in 2012, spent 19-seasons with Cincinnati. So let's compare Rollins's career numbers to Larkin's.

Immediately, you can see a huge difference in batting average in favor of Larkin. You also see a sizable difference in RBIs, but keep in mind the difference in games played. The strikeouts, however, are what really sets Rollins back. He's played in 544 games less Larkin, yet he already eclipsed his career strikeout total.

Digging deeper, EYE (BB / SO) tells the story. Larkin was a much more patient hitter than Rollins and his patience led to more productive at-bats. You can see a major difference in Linear Weights (LINW) and Base Performance Value (BPV). The large difference in BPV means Larkin's raw skills (i.e., eye, hitting safely, hitting with power, etc.) appear to be better than Rollins's.

Larkin's BABIP (Batting Average on Balls Put in Play) is significantly better than Rollins's, reinforcing the logic that he was better at strategically placing the balls he hit. Though data is incomplete, Larkin's GB/FB ratio was 1.51 whereas Rollins's (with complete career data) is 1.15, meaning Rollins is more prone to the fly out than Larkin.

Looking beyond Larkin, Alan Trammell and Dave Concepcion are the two other shortstops that often enter the debate of worthiness for Cooperstown.

Trammell put up decent numbers over 19-seasons, making him comparable to Larkin. (Baseball Reference actually ranks Trammell as the most similar shortstop to Larkin.) Concepcion's offensive numbers are included simply to offer a fuller picture.

Offensively, the case is simple - Larkin and Trammell have better numbers than Rollins and appear to be more deserving. The tide changes a bit though when looking at where the four rank defensively.

Rollins's fielding percentage is significantly better than the others he's compared with in this study (he actually has the third highest FPct. for a shortstop in MLB history). His error-to-chance number is outstanding and he has won three Gold Gloves. Comparatively speaking, Larkin also won three Gold Gloves, Trammell four, and Concepcion five.

Can Rollins's offensive shortcoming be negated by his defensive play, or is the entire conversation moot? How will this conversation sound in three or four seasons?

As of now, Larkin and Trammell rank ahead of Rollins. Also, you can't forget contemporaries Omar Vizquel, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter - all deserving of enshrinement before Rollins.

Rollins has been a great player, but he's flawed. Even if he surpasses the 2,000 hit mark and reaches 250 home runs, I can't see him getting in with Larkin, Trammell, Vizquel, Jeter, and Rodriguez all standing deservedly in front of him.

What is your opinion? Will Rollins finish his career with numbers worthy of Cooperstown?

Rangers skate by Flyers in Winter Classic

2012-01-02T19:13:00.000-05:00

PBR - Mike Rupp notched a pair of goals and Henrik Lundqvist stopped a penalty shot in the final minute of the third period to lift the Rangers to a 3-2 win in the Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic in front of 46,967 fans on Monday at Citizens Bank Park.

Rupp scored a goal late in the second period and again early in the third period to negate a 2-0 deficit. Brad Richards scored what turned out to be the game-winner with 14:39 remaining in the contest.

Danny Briere had an opportunity to tie the game with a penalty shot with 19.6 seconds in the third period, but Lundqvist turned the shot away marking his 33rd save. Ryan McDonagh sprawled across the goal-line behind Lundqvist to prevent a lose puck from trickling in, but he covered the puck with his hand, affording the penalty shot.

Brayden Schenn collected his first career goal to open the scoring for the Flyers in the second period. Claude Giroux scored less than two-minutes later, lifting the Flyers to a 2-0 advantage.

Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 shots in the losing effort.

History: Best of the AL in the 1900s

2011-12-27T23:27:00.001-05:00

PBR - Throughout the next few weeks the Review will unveil several portions of a new statistical study that ranks teams relative to league and decade. A formula using seven unique sabermetric categories, combined with regression, resulted in the ranking system. The full formula / study will be unveiled during the summer of 2012 and published on the Review.

This installment looks at the American League from 1901-1909 and ranked 72 teams.

Best: 1903 Boston Americans, 91-47, .659, World Series Champions

Led by hurlers Cy Young (28-9, 2.08) and Bill Dinneen (21-13, 2.26), the Americans coasted to the first American League pennant and finished 14.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Athletics. Buck Freeman paced the offense with 13 home runs while driving in 104. Six of eight offensive starters reached double-digits in stolen bases. The Americans went on to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first ever World Series, five games to three.

Philadelphia (AL) in the 1900s (rank of 72 teams): 1901 - 18th, 1902 - 4th, 1903 - 10th, 1904 - 17th, 1905 - 2nd, 1906 - 20th, 1907 - 7th, 1908 - 45th, 1909 - 3rd.

Top Five AL Teams of the 1900s: 1903 Boston, 1905 Philadelphia, 1909 Philadelphia, 1902 Philadelphia, 1906 Cleveland.

Bottom Five AL Teams of the 1900s: 1904 Washington, 1908 New York, 1903 Washington, 1901 Cleveland, 1902 Detroit.

Roto Challenge: Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

2011-12-23T15:37:00.001-05:00

PBR - The Review will publicly manage a club this season in CDM's Diamond Roto Challenge.

Today's Selection: Freedie Freeman

1B, ATL, $760,000

Freeman had a strong rookie season and emerged as a potential top-tier first baseman. He needs to improve his plate discipline (see the 37% Eye Rating from last year (bb/k), but has the tools to hit 20 homers and drive in 90 runs.

Selecting a team in a league like this where the salaries are already defined means you have to search for the best values. I examined the depth charts on Rotoworld and averaged the salaries of all starting first basemen (and a few DH's) and found the value to be near $980,000. At $760,000 Freeman is approximately $220,000 less than an average first basemen.

Given positional scarcity at other positions, I think taking Freeman below the league average makes complete sense. The savings will allow me to spend elsewhere. Bill James's projections are favorable and I think batting in the middle of a quality Braves lineup will enhance his chances to drive in 85-90 runs. Again, plate patience is a concern, but his Eye Rating in the minors was 50% so I think he can improve on taking pitches and limiting strikeouts.

Some thoughts on the situation surrounding columnist Bill Conlin

2011-12-22T23:03:00.001-05:00

PBR - My last communication with Bill Conlin was via e-mail following his induction this summer to the Hall of Fame. I congratulated him and noted how happy I was that a fellow alumnus from Temple University made it to Cooperstown.

With what we know now, I'm not too sure how thrilled I feel about Conlin's enshrinement.

Conlin, 77, was accused of molesting four children, including his niece, in an unsettling investigative piece by Nancy Phillips that ran in Tuesday's Philadelphia Inquirer.

The story is vile. The quotes and memories are haunting. Phillips's story exceeds the Sandusky Grand Jury Report in terms of sheer rawness because it includes names and first-person accounts.

The allegations are a chilling reminder that we truly never know what secrets lay buried in someone's past.

Conlin covered the Phillies beat for more than twenty seasons with the Daily News before becoming a columnist in 1987.

Sharing a profession and degree, I felt a sense of connectedness to Conlin. I never idolized him, but I held him in high esteem. How can I ever think of him in the same way?

Conlin's bombastic style of writing has been a constant in the Philadelphia media landscape for more than forty years. He became the rare exception where a columnist was more polarizing than some of the very athletes he opined about.

The whole situation is a mess.

I cannot imagine how the accusers felt everytime they heard Conlin's name. I heard the name of a respected sports journalist - they heard the name of a monster.

Sabermetrics: Is Jim Kaat worthy of the Hall of Fame?

2011-12-19T00:19:00.007-05:00

PBR - Jim Kaat was on the Hall of Fame ballot for 15 years but never came close to gaining election. He was passed over again last month when the Veterans Committee elected Ron Santo from the Golden Era Ballot.

Kaat was a solid pitcher that won 283 games over 25 seasons (1959-1983), including four with the Phillies. He won at least 20 games three times and was a three-time All-Star. However, he finished among the top ten in Earned Run Average just three times and finished among the top ten in hits allowed nine times.

So, are his numbers of Hall of Fame caliber?

His contemporaries (according to similarity scores from Baseball Reference) were Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, Bert Blyleven, and Tommy John.

To evaluate Kaat against similar pitchers I looked at Career Pitching Runs, which according to noted author and sabermetician Jim Albert, is better in measuring efficiency and durability than traditional Earned Run Average.

Pitching Runs = (IP) X (Lge. ERA/9) - (ER).

To compute Lge. ERA I took Career ERA+ and multiplied it by Career ERA. I then divided the result by 100 and compared Kaat to the four pitchers named above.

According to the numbers, Kaat does not stack up to Jenkins, Roberts, or Blyleven, all Hall of Famers. John also appears to be better than Kaat, but he's on the outside looking in when it comes to Cooperstown.

To confirm Kaat's standing, I delved deeper and computed Career Pitching Runs for the nine recent pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame (Blyleven made ten).

Again, Kaat's numbers simply don't stack up. Bruce Sutter's number (117) is less than Kaat's (137), but that's to be expected as he was a reliever/closer.

To conclude my study, I compared Kaat's numbers to a few other pitchers that are in the conversation regarding the Hall of Fame ... (yes, Brad Radke is a stretch, but he's on the 2012 ballot and his Career Pitching Runs is actually better than Kaat's.)

So, what does all of this mean?

Certainly you can't put all of your stock in one statistic, but it appears quite evident that Kaat falls short when compared to those recently enshrined in Cooperstown. Furthermore, the argument can be made that Luis Tiant and Tommy John are more deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame than Kaat.

The saga is over: Phillies re-sign Rollins

2011-12-17T13:47:00.001-05:00

PBR - According to several reports, the Phillies have re-signed shortstop Jimmy Rollins to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth.

The 33-year-old originally was seeking a five-year deal, but the market for such a contract did not exist.

Terms of the signing have not yet been disclosed.

More to come ...

Rollins' agent talking with mystery team

2011-12-13T20:31:00.001-05:00

PBR - Reports surfaced Tuesday afternoon that Jimmy Rollins' agent Dan Lozano was in communication with a club other than the Phillies regarding a multi-year deal.

Rollins had been seeking a five-year deal, but that was before Alex Gonazalez signed with Milwaukee and Rafael Furcal returned to St. Louis.

As it stands now, the market for shortstops is slim. Detroit is rumored to be the mystery club, but the Tigers already have Jhonny Peralta signed through 2012.

Despite the rumors, the Phillies remain a likely fit with Rollins.